McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE:MCD) outlined its long-term growth and profitability plans at its 2026 Investor Day on Wednesday. Management also acknowledged areas where restaurant-level execution needs to improve.
Several analysts lowered their price forecasts following the update.
- TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles maintained a Hold rating and cut his price forecast from $282 to $270.
- BTIG analyst Peter Saleh maintained a Buy rating and lowered his price forecast from $350 to $295.
- RBC Capital analyst Logan Reich kept a Sector Perform rating and reduced his price forecast from $290 to $285.
- Evercore ISI analyst David Palmer maintained an Outperform rating and lowered his price forecast from $320 to $300.
- JPMorgan analyst John Ivankoe reiterated an Overweight rating and cut his price forecast from $280 to $260.
TD Cowen Sees More Estimate Cuts
TD Cowen said it welcomed management’s effort to restore positive traffic through its NEXT strategy. The firm noted that McDonald’s trades at about 17 times forward earnings, its lowest level since 2016 excluding the COVID-19 period.
However, Charles sees an uncertain recovery timeline. He models U.S. same-store sales below consensus for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027.
TD Cowen also expects further negative revisions to U.S. same-store sales estimates. Its 2026 forecast of 0.4% is among the lowest on Wall Street.
The analyst questioned whether recent traffic weakness is structural rather than cyclical. Competition remains elevated, while value offerings may provide limited incremental benefits. New chicken and beverage platforms are also taking longer to gain traction.
The bullish case depends on McDonald’s returning to normalized U.S. same-store sales growth of 3% to 4%, driven by market-share gains in chicken and beverages. Charles said that recovery could take several quarters and will require sustained traffic improvement.
BTIG Questions McDonald’s Efficiency Targets
BTIG’s more cautious view reflects weak current sales trends, broader industry pressure and uncertainty around McDonald’s long-term earnings outlook.
Saleh slightly lowered his 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates. He said estimates for 2028 through 2030 could also move lower because NEXT-related rent relief may more than offset savings from lower general and administrative expenses.
BTIG remains cautiously optimistic that McDonald’s can align with franchisees on next-generation restaurant upgrades. Still, inflation, flat industry traffic and the need to gain market share create a difficult backdrop.
Saleh highlighted slower unit growth, a more disciplined promotional calendar, greater emphasis on restaurant efficiency and technology progress as positives.
However, he flagged McDonald’s planned $5 billion investment through 2030, and $8.5 billion overall, as well as weak U.S. sales trends. He also questioned whether the company can achieve its targeted 250-basis-point improvement in restaurant efficiency.
RBC Sees U.S. Sales Pressure
RBC Capital said McDonald’s unit-growth outlook through 2030 came in below consensus. Reich also noted that planned spending on restaurants and technology appeared higher than expected.
He expects U.S. same-store sales to remain under pressure. RBC slightly lowered its third-quarter U.S. same-store sales forecast after management indicated that results should remain slightly negative.
For 2027, Reich raised his unit-growth estimate slightly to 4.4% year over year. He also modeled more refranchising, which could weigh on reported revenue and modestly reduce EBIT and EPS.
RBC extended its estimates through 2030 to reflect McDonald’s newly issued long-term financial targets.
McDonald’s Price Action
MCD Price Action: McDonald’s shares were up 0.87% at $240.40 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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