Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) stock declined Friday after BofA Securities downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral and cut its price forecast to $30 from $47. BofA analyst Lorraine Hutchinson issued the rating when Nike was trading at $35.99, implying 16.6% downside to the new price forecast.
BofA said the firm sees downside risk to earnings per share estimates and valuation as innovation is offset by pressure in Nike’s classics business, along with category and macroeconomic headwinds. The new price forecast is based on a 16 times price-to-earnings multiple, down from 22 times, in line with the peer average.
Earnings Estimates Cut
BofA lowered its fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 EPS estimates by 11% and 12%, respectively and now projects negative sales growth through fiscal 2027, compared with its prior expectation of a spring recovery. The firm’s fiscal 2027 EPS estimate stands 14% below Visible Alpha consensus.
Wholesale Sell-Through Lags
North American wholesale sales grew 14% in fiscal 2026 against flat total sales growth. BofA said sell-through is lagging sell-in in some cases due to declines in classic styles and new launches missing expectations, which puts forward order books at risk. The firm expects North American wholesale sales declines to begin in the second quarter and continue through the remainder of fiscal 2027.
China Demand Remains Weak
Greater China sales fell 17% on a constant-currency basis in the fourth quarter, according to the note. BofA’s Luxury Goods team conducted a China field trip and found weak sports demand, product newness not resonating, moderating running category outperformance, and excess inventory tied to low demand.
BofA projects a fiscal 2027 dividend payout ratio above 100%, prompting the firm to lower its income rating to 8 from 7.
Technical Analysis
Nike is still in a clear longer-term downtrend, trading 28.4% below its 200-day SMA ($49.49) and 10.6% below its 50-day SMA ($39.68), which keeps the bigger-picture bias bearish. The 20-day SMA ($37.09) remains below the 50-day SMA (bearish), and the death cross that formed in November 2025 (50-day falling below the 200-day) continues to frame rallies as countertrend until proven otherwise.
From a levels standpoint, the stock is sitting just above its 52-week low zone ($35.35), so traders will be watching whether this area holds as a base or breaks into fresh lows. A rebound attempt has to contend with overhead supply closer to the low-$40s, where prior pivots and moving averages can cap upside.
NKE Stock Price Activity: Nike shares are trading lower by 0.49% at $35.81 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Image via Shutterstock/ Roman Zaiets
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