Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trades just above its May of $82,800 on Monday morning, but analysts remain curious if the breakout can survive into Q4 or give way to a correction towards the $79,000 region.
Why the Burden Of Proof Shifted to Bears
Bitcoin’s weekly close marked a shift from lower highs to a higher high, prompting analyst Benjamin Cowen to say the "burden of proof has shifted" to bears.
Cowen, who previously assigned a 65% chance that Bitcoin’s low was not yet in, said the breakout requires reassessing that view.
While BTC has also reclaimed its 50-week moving average, it has risen only about 10% above it.
Cowen noted in a podcast on Sept. 28 that Bitcoin rallied roughly 40% within two weeks after its 2019 reclaim and about 24% following the comparable 2023 breakout.
Sustained acceptance above $82,800 would support the bullish structure, while a move back below that level, particularly alongside a quick retest of the 50-week average, would be more concerning.
He also flagged historically challenging Q4 performance during U.S. midterm-election years, leaving both further upside and another correction in play.
Which Key Indicators Flash Bearish Divergence
Trader Doctor Profit meanwhile remains bullish on Bitcoin’s broader trend but expects a near-term pullback after BTC nearly reached his $88,000 target.
He pointed to two factors:
- The daily RSI is showing a bearish divergence.
- The ADX (Average Directional Index) is flashing weakening trend strength.
He also identified a significant liquidity zone around $62,000 but stressed that this is not his immediate target.
Instead, the key test is around $79,000. If the 50-week MA holds as support, Doctor Profit said he could close his short and look for Bitcoin’s broader rally to resume.
A breakdown could increase the risk of a deeper correction, Doctor Profit noted on Sept. 28.
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