STAAR Surgical Co (NASDAQ:STAA) has potential to achieve "meaningful upside" to the current Street estimates for the back half of 2026 and full-year 2027, according to Stifel.
The STAAR Surgical Analyst: Analyst Tom Stephan upgraded the rating from Hold to Buy and raised the price target from $28 to $31.
The STAAR Surgical Thesis: The stock valuation offers an "attractive entry point," given the company’s potential to generate revenue growth at a CAGR of 11% between 2026 and 2028, compared to the current consensus estimate of 8%, Stephan said in the upgrade note.
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H2 Sales Upside: China’s refractive market regained momentum in 2025, with aggregate refractive revenue growth across the publicly traded ophthalmology operators reaccelerating from 1% in 2024 to 9% in 2025, the analyst stated.
STAAR Surgical’s largest customer in China, Aier Eye Hospital, reflected similar annual trends, he added.
Refractive revenue growth of 7% year-on-year at China’s clinic operators in the first half of 2026 suggests "sustained solid market performance so far in 2026," the analyst further wrote.
Street’s China sales forecast for STAAR Surgical, at $64 million, for the second half of 2026 reflects normalized growth of 21%-22% year-on-year, Stephen stated. Mix shift toward higher-ASP EVO+ could generate around 14 points of China ICL (implantable collamer lens) sales growth in the back half, implying that only mid-to-high single-digit volume growth would be required to hit or exceed Street estimates, the analyst noted.
"We also see a path to 2H26 ex-China sales upside, with the two-year CAGR showing an implied deceleration from +8% in 1H26 to just +4% in 2H26," he wrote. Moreover, STAA Surgical’s recently announced share repurchase authorization augurs well for the company’s "continued solid profitability (EBITDA) performance," the analyst further said.
Mix shift toward the higher-ASP EVO+ could be "a meaningful source of 2027 China revenue growth," he added.
STAA Price Action: Shares of STAAR Surgical had risen by 8.46% to $22.64 at the time of publication on Tuesday.
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