SpaceX Is 'Cheap and Getting Cheaper' Morgan Stanley Says

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas thinks investors are using the wrong yardstick to value SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX).

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In a Sunday note titled “Cheap and Getting Cheaper,” he reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target on SpaceX shares. He argued that the stock looks expensive on headline multiples but cheap once you factor in its growth, and he urged investors to build positions before Starship Flight 15.

The Growth-Adjusted Math

At $159, SpaceX trades at about 30 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT, compared with roughly 16 times for a group of mega-cap AI enablers, Jonas wrote. 

The comparison flips once you factor in year-over-year growth. On that basis, SpaceX trades at about 0.3 times 2028 EV/EBIT-to-growth, around 40% below the group’s 0.5 times median.

Even at Morgan Stanley’s $300 target, the multiple would be only about 0.6 times. That compares with 0.5 times for Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), 0.7 times for Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and 0.8 times for Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META).

AI Comes Almost Free

Jonas believes the current share price already accounts for most or all of SpaceX’s space and connectivity businesses, which Morgan Stanley values at $127 per share.

 The remaining $32 is effectively what the market is paying for AI, which he says equals about 3 times 2028 sales, a multiple typical of neocloud companies.

Morgan Stanley’s sum-of-the-parts model values the AI side much higher. It assigns $165 per share to enterprise AI, even after a 50% discount for execution risk, and $118 to connectivity. External launch and X and Grok each get $8.

Compute Pricing Is the Swing Factor

Much of the debate comes down to how much compute SpaceX deploys and what customers pay for it. Jonas wrote that those variables “can swing even next year’s revenue by potentially a multiple.”

Visible Alpha consensus assumes $17.60 per watt across 4.1 gigawatts of capacity. Each additional $10 per watt would add more than $40 billion to consensus revenue, or over one-third of the fiscal 2027 total, without any change in deployed compute. 

Jonas estimates SpaceX’s recent short-term neocloud contracts were priced at $30 to $50 per watt. A Compute Desk index cited in the note shows rental pricing for Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) Blackwell B300 chips up more than 50% this year.

Few Hands Raised

Investor interest remains thin. When Jonas recently asked 40 clients whether they owned the stock, nobody raised a hand. He added that lockup expiries “have largely proved to be a non-event.”

In his view, the stock would test $100 within the next 12 months only after a clear slowdown in AI progress, a severe setback in Starship testing or a material dilutive event.

Catalysts Ahead

Starship Flight 15 is expected in late October or early November. Jonas said a possible ship catch “could be the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO.” 

Third-quarter earnings, also expected in late October, could give the first real look at the economics of Cursor and Grok Bot, and Grok versions 4.8, 4.9 and 5.0 are expected before year-end.

Morgan Stanley co-managed a SpaceX offering in the past year and has received investment banking fees from the company.

SPCX Price Action

SpaceX shares have traded around $150 since early August, well below their 52-week high of $225.64. The stock jumped 7.35% Friday to close at $158.96 and was up 3.6% at $164.63 Monday morning, according to Benzinga Pro data. 

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