Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has traded higher in recent sessions after the company beat analyst estimates for third quarter deliveries. A market expert sees this as only the beginning, and Tesla is likely to gain market share from competition ahead.
Tesla to Crush Competition
Tesla’s strong delivery figures, which were among the company’s best since losing the federal EV tax credit, have Munster excited for the company’s future.
"Let’s set aside the pleasantries, Tesla is going to crush traditional automakers," Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster said in a blog post.
Munster said things could get ugly for companies like Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) and General Motors Company (NYSE:GM), who had electric vehicle deliveries down around 75% in September.
Tesla deliveries were down 2% year-over-year in September, but that’s against the comparable period that included the EV tax credit, which expired on Sept. 30, 2025. Munster estimates that this year’s September total would be up 8% year-over-year if adjusted for the ending of the tax credit.
"Tesla’s car business has returned to growth for two consecutive quarters."
Munster said Tesla and other EV companies are seeing increased demand as gas prices at the pump in the United States rise. Munster said Tesla is also winning because of its value proposition to buyers and its FSD software.
"Those two tailwinds are sustainable and will likely lead to deliveries next year increasing by around 15% vs the Street’s current estimate of up 9%."
How Tesla Keeps Winning
Munster recognizes that demand for electric vehicles could fall in the future, as gas prices come back down.
While overall EV sales could drop, Munster sees Tesla as the winner. "Tesla has the most compelling lineup for the dollar, outside of Chinese EV makers."
For companies like Ford and General Motors, Munster argues they’re stuck in a Catch-22. They have to price their vehicles cheaply and take a loss, or price them higher and risk limited demand.
Munster also sees Tesla’s FSD as a major differentiator compared with traditional automaker EVs that don’t have the same autonomous capabilities.
"Over time, more people will have FSD and tell their friends, and those friends will buy Teslas."
Munster said Ford and GM could still license FSD, otherwise things could get more difficult for them.
"That outcome may take a decade to play out, but the writing is on the wall."
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