Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is entering a critical stretch as improving vehicle demand supports its core automotive business while the company invests heavily in Full Self-Driving, robotaxis, autonomous technology and humanoid robots.
Tesla stock has fallen more than 15% in 2026 as AI and robotics spending pressures margins. Meanwhile, its core electric vehicle business continues to face intense competition.
Q3 Deliveries Beat Expectations
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, beating the 461,974 average of 24 sell-side estimates published by the company by 5.3%.
However, deliveries declined 2.1% from last year’s record 497,099 vehicles.
Energy storage deployments totaled 13.7 GWh, 13.8% below the 15.9 GWh consensus estimate. That marked Tesla’s third consecutive miss for the business.
Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster said the delivery results suggest Tesla could continue taking market share from traditional automakers.
“Let’s set aside the pleasantries, Tesla is going to crush traditional automakers,” Munster said.
He noted that Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) and General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM) saw electric vehicle deliveries fall about 75% in September. Tesla’s deliveries, by comparison, declined just 2% year over year against a period that still benefited from the federal EV tax credit.
Munster estimated Tesla’s September deliveries would have increased about 8% year over year after adjusting for the tax-credit expiration. “Tesla’s car business has returned to growth for two consecutive quarters.”
FSD Could Strengthen Tesla’s Demand Story
Munster pointed to higher U.S. gasoline prices, Tesla’s value proposition and Full Self-Driving software as potential demand drivers.
“Those two tailwinds are sustainable and will likely lead to deliveries next year increasing by around 15% vs the Street’s current estimate of up 9%.”
He acknowledged that lower gasoline prices could weaken EV demand. Still, Munster believes Tesla maintains a competitive advantage.
“Tesla has the most compelling lineup for the dollar, outside of Chinese EV makers.”
Munster also expects FSD to strengthen Tesla’s competitive position as adoption expands.
“Over time, more people will have FSD and tell their friends, and those friends will buy Teslas.”
Former Tesla President Jon McNeill also sees FSD supporting demand. He compared Tesla’s technology advantage with the transition from flip phones to smartphones.
“I think you’re seeing this in the Tesla numbers and it’s really driving their sales,” McNeill said.
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Tesla Still Needs Its Car Business
McNeill cautioned that Tesla still depends on cash flow from vehicle sales to fund its larger ambitions in robotaxis and humanoid robots.
“They need the cash flow from the cars to fund what is looking like a longer road to robots and a longer road to cybercabs,” he said.
McNeill said both businesses require “enormous amounts of capital” and are taking longer to scale than expected.
That makes the performance of Tesla’s automotive business increasingly important as the company pours money into its next generation of products.
Ives Sees 2027 As a Crucial Year
Yorkville Ives partner Dan Ives called Tesla’s delivery beat a “sigh of relief for investors” and said improving demand in Europe was “a big step in the right direction.”
Ives expects the Model 3 and Model Y to remain Tesla’s primary volume drivers. He does not expect Cybertruck to materially change the demand picture.
He told CNBC on Saturday that Tesla is shifting “from EV player into what I view as really a true AI player.”
Ives said robotaxis, autonomous driving and Optimus will increasingly define Tesla’s longer-term investment story.
“The big thing is going to be about the Robotaxi launch, because so far, it’s been slower out of the gate, clearly regulatory.”
Ives called Tesla’s third-quarter delivery beat an “appetizer,” saying 2027 could be a pivotal year as Robotaxi, autonomous driving and Optimus move closer to broader commercialization.
“Demand’s stabilizing. And that’s important, set the stage for I think what could be a very, very strong year.”
TSLA Price Action: Tesla shares were up 0.51% at $380.65 during premarket trading on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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