Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) whales have added $1.22 billion since Oct/ 1, fueling what one analyst calls a lockout rally toward $100,000.
What a ‘Lockout Rally’ Means
John Gillen, host of the Milk Road crypto podcast, explained on Monday’s show that Bitcoin has been in a lockout rally since August.
Price moves sideways in a tight range, volatility shrinks, and then it jumps higher. As a result, buyers never get a clean entry.
He argues that six to nine months of deep fear already pushed casual traders out of the market, which leaves few sellers.
Even a 15% to 25% drop would not change his plan to keep buying. “I’m long as hell,” he told viewers
Why Crypto Is Rising While Stocks Stall
John said the rally rests on adoption and regulation, not a short squeeze. He pointed to three recent developments that give more investors access to crypto:
- SEC innovation exemption: lets companies tokenize U.S. stocks for five years
- OKX and the New York Stock Exchange: plan to put more than 60 tokenized stocks on OKX’s X Layer network
- Leveraged ETFs: the SEC approved its first 3x leveraged Bitcoin and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) ETFs this week
John does not see the recovery as stretched, because Bitcoin at $85,000 sits only slightly above its average price for the past year.
He reads the move as a return to normal after a deep selloff, not an overvalued market.
He rejected a viral cycle theory that called for a market bottom on October 6, one year after Bitcoin’s high near $126,000, because markets do not follow a set number of days.
That view matches investor Dan Tapiero’s post, who called $100,000 a “chip shot” from here.
Why Yet Another Analyst Sees $100,000
Widely-followed crypto analyst Ali Martinez posted a thread on X showing that Bitcoin has traded between $83,000 and $86,700 for two weeks.
He cited Glassnode data showing 1.59 million BTC changed hands between $83,300 and $84,600, which gives buyers a zone to defend.
Above $86,700, the same data shows no comparable cluster of coins until about $105,000.
Santiment data in the thread also shows that large holders added more than 14,335 BTC, worth about $1.22 billion, since Oct. 1.
What Could Interrupt the Rally
John warned that bond yields, the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. midterms could bring turbulence in October.
A 10% pullback in the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) could also drag Bitcoin lower according to him, though that has not happened yet.
Key Levels for Bitcoin
Martinez said $100,000 could return to focus if buyers defend support and clear the top of the range:
- $86,700: breakout point and top of the two-week range
- $83,300 to $84,600: support zone
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