Leo Pareja, CEO of eXp Realty, a unit of AGNT Inc. (NASDAQ:AGNT), said the U.S. is on track for a softer housing market by the end of the year, with annual home sales likely falling to levels not seen since the early 1990s.
In an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street,” published Monday, Pareja said, “the 7% interest rate is a very real barrier for people psychologically.”
A Nationwide Slowdown, But Not Everywhere
Pareja said the country was on track to close 4.2 million transactions in 2026 but “might not even touch 4 million,” potentially landing in the “high three millions.” He said he does not think it’s “out of the question that rates could touch 8%,” though he expects activity to settle in the “high threes to the low fours” of homes sold nationally regardless. He said the slowdown is concentrated in certain regions rather than nationwide, citing southwest Florida as among the hardest hit, with 8% to 9% year-over-year price depreciation.
Not A Price Collapse, He Says
Pareja pushed back on comparisons to another Great Recession, saying “that is categorically false,” since risky adjustable-rate mortgage structures from that era “don’t exist right now.” He described the current downturn as “a housing recession of total transactions sold” rather than a price collapse, noting sales have fallen from nearly 7 million in 2021 toward 4 million now. He also pointed to new-construction inventory hitting an all-time high of 9.5 months of supply, with builders offering rate buydowns that could get buyers into fixed mortgages “as low as in the fives.”
The comments add to a string of recent warnings about housing-market strain. Compass, Inc. (NYSE: COMP) CEO Robert Reffkin has said 42% of homes saw price cuts in September, the highest in nearly a decade, while Redfin data has shown sellers outnumbering buyers by more than 51% in several metros. A weaker labor market has separately made it harder for first-time buyers to save for down payments, according to Realtor.com economist Joel Berner.
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