CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) is positioning itself for sustained cybersecurity growth as demand for endpoint protection, AI security and agent-focused tools expands, though BNP Paribas remains cautious on the stock’s valuation.
The stock has gained over 147% in 2026, surging 30% in the last month driven by AI-driven cybersecurity demand.
BNP Paribas Sees Longer EDR Tailwind
Analyst Andrew DeGasperi said the firm came away more constructive on CrowdStrike’s long-term financial targets, AI detection and response opportunities, and identity protection prospects after a virtual fireside chat with company executives.
CrowdStrike did not update its fiscal-year guidance during the discussion.
DeGasperi said CrowdStrike sees a meaningful opportunity to gain endpoint detection and response, or EDR, market share following Mythos. The company had already been seeing acceleration in its flagship product before events earlier this year.
CrowdStrike’s investor-relations team sees an opportunity to target the 48% of the market still using legacy solutions.
DeGasperi said that opportunity could support growth for several years because EDR contracts typically run for about five years.
He also highlighted CrowdStrike’s unified control plane, which combines traditional endpoint security with AI-focused capabilities. BNP Paribas believes that structure could give CrowdStrike an advantage over legacy EDR vendors that lack an integrated AI sensor.
Long-Term Targets May Prove Conservative
DeGasperi said CrowdStrike’s long-term growth assumptions could prove conservative.
The company is targeting more than 20% net new annual recurring revenue growth in fiscal 2028. It also aims to reach $10 billion in ARR by fiscal 2030 and $20 billion by fiscal 2035.
Those long-term targets assume CrowdStrike captures roughly 3.5% of an estimated $565 billion AI-security total addressable market.
BNP Paribas noted that CrowdStrike’s current market share is already around 4%. Combined with potential EDR share gains over the next four to five years, that suggests the company’s assumptions may leave room for upside.
AI Security Adds Another Growth Driver
DeGasperi also pointed to CrowdStrike’s recent Fal.Con innovations, including Guardian and SafeMind.
Guardian is already generally available, while SafeMind runs on Nvidia’s Nemotron. CrowdStrike’s investor-relations team clarified that SafeMind does not compete with NVIDIA Corp.’s new security product.
BNP Paribas said SafeMind offers customers a cost-effective, purpose-built model to detect rogue agent behavior.
Despite the constructive operating outlook, BNP Paribas maintained its Equal-weight-style stance, with a $180 price forecast versus a $270 share price as of Oct. 2, implying 33% downside.
CRWD Stock Price Activity: CrowdStrike Holdings shares are trading higher by 3.12% at $281.18 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
The stock hit a new record high of $286.99 during the session. Over the past 12 months, the stock has gained 126.8%, outpacing the S&P 500’s 16.1% gain.
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