IonQ Inc. (NYSE:IONQ) on Monday landed a defense contract win, which comes days before a pivotal earnings report and weeks after a short seller tried to cut the stock in half.
The contract falls under the Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD program, which is the procurement framework behind President Trump’s Golden Dome initiative.
The total ceiling is $151 billion, but IonQ is one of more than 2,400 companies now eligible to compete for future task orders.
IonQ builds quantum computers and sells access to them through cloud platforms including Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure.
The company did not disclose what its initial award is actually worth, meaning this announcement doesn’t immediately neutralize Wolfpack’s allegations of a near-term revenue cliff.
CEO Niccolo de Masi said IonQ brings together quantum computing, networking, sensing and security capabilities built over years of investment.
Why The Timing Matters
The stock is down almost 28% over the past month, after a well known short seller, Wolfpack Research, published a report alleging that up to 86% of the company’s 2022-2024 revenue was dependent on Pentagon earmarks that have since been eliminated.
IonQ called the Wolfpack report “false, misleading, and unsubstantiated,” saying it came from a short seller attempting to profit by driving the stock down. Wolfpack is short IONQ and stands to gain from a decline.
The SHIELD announcement may help IonQ’s case.
The company has previously worked with DARPA and the Air Force Research Laboratory, and its subsidiaries give it capabilities across satellite imagery, optical communications and precision timing that fit the defense use case.
Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore cut his price target from $58 to $35 ahead of earnings but kept an Equal Weight rating. The average analyst target is still above $70, more than double Monday’s close.
Earnings
Polymarket traders are pricing a 78% chance IonQ beats the Street consensus GAAP EPS of -$0.47 on Wednesday.
Benzinga estimates peg Q4 EPS at -$0.48 with revenue of $40.35 million. Last quarter the company beat EPS by $0.19 and the stock popped 3.65% the next day.
Revenue is expected to jump roughly 245% year over year. IonQ previously pre-announced full-year revenue at the high end or above its $106-$110 million guidance range.
What To Watch Wednesday
Guidance may matter more than the numbers. Investors want management to address the Wolfpack allegations and break out organic quantum revenue from subsidiary contributions.
IonQ is also working to close its $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater Technology (NASDAQ:SKYT), expected in Q2 or Q3 2026.
The stock is 64% below its 52-week high. A strong beat with credible guidance could set up a sharp reversal. Vague answers on the revenue mix question may confirm what the shorts have been saying.
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