President Donald Trump spoke for 107 minutes on Tuesday night, the longest State of the Union in American history but never mentioned Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) or crypto.
Still, the world’s biggest cryptocurrency rallied to $69,000 on the day after the speech.
What Polymarket Predicted
On Polymarket, traders thought there was just a 27% chance of Trump mentioning either term.
BTC is up almost 8% on Wednesday as renewed spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reversed weeks of institutional bleeding.
ETFs had shed nearly $4 billion over five consecutive weeks of outflows before the tide turned.
Short liquidations also played a role, with nearly $380 million wiped out in 24 hours according to Coinglass, meaning the rally was partly fueled by forced buying from traders caught on the wrong side.
The broader risk-on mood ahead of Nvidia Corp earnings tonight is pulling crypto higher alongside equities.
The Nasdaq is up over 1% and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 11, deep in “Extreme Fear” territory.
Historically, readings that low have preceded bounces as contrarian buyers step in.
What Else Did Polymarket Get Right?
Trump blanked Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, another correct prediction from Polymarket.
He also blanked Artemis, NASA’s program to return humans to the Moon, fueling questions about the missions progress.
Trump failed to mention Gold Card or Trump Card, possibly signaling these programs have lost his interest.
Polymarket prices the chance of even a single Gold Card being issued by March 31 at 13%
Trump wore a red tie, and spoke for over 100 minutes, both of which were correctly predicted by Polymarket.
Neither Nicki Minaj, self-proclaimed Trump’s No1 fan, nor Jensen Huang made an appearance.
They were at 20% and 3% beforehand. Jensen will get his own chance to move the markets tonight with NVDA’s earnings.
Is This Rally Real?
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen warned Wednesday that BTC is closely mirroring price behavior seen in prior midterm-year bear markets, specifically 2014, 2018 and 2022: weakness into February, a brief rally in early March, then another leg lower into spring.
He called the current move a potential bull trap rather than a true cycle bottom.
Polymarket bettors appear to agree. The platform’s “Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?” contract prices $60,000 at 61%, meaning the crowd expects Wednesday’s rally to give back its gains before BTC can reclaim $80,000.
The “What price will BTC hit before 2027” contract has $100,000 at just 39%. $150,000 is at 10%. The market has seen almost $20 million in volume.
February is priced at 1% to be BTC’s best month of 2026.
BTC is still down about 46% from its October high.
Wednesday’s bounce is encouraging, but the catalyst was ETF flows and equity momentum, not the White House. C
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