Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has broken a 13-month losing streak in Europe as February registration data shows double-digit gains across France, Spain, and Norway.

The February Turnaround

France registrations jumped 55% year-over-year, even as competitors saw declines.

Spain surged 74%, and Norway saw Tesla reclaim the #1 brand spot with 1,210 registrations, a 75.6% gain from the 689 units sold in February 2025.

The Model Y dominated Norway with 1,073 units, representing nearly 89% of Tesla’s total.

Not everything was positive. The Netherlands cratered 45% and Denmark fell 18%. But the headline markets showed genuine strength for the first time since early 2025.

The rebound has two simple explanations.

Tesla rolled out cheaper versions of its Model Y and Model 3 in Europe late last year, with the Model Y Standard starting at $39,990.

January’s dismal numbers also made the sequential jump look more dramatic. Norway saw registrations drop almost 90% after VAT changes took effect January 1, pulling purchases forward into late 2025.

Polymarket Remains Bearish On Q1

Despite the positive data, traders on Polymarket remain skeptical about Q1 deliveries.

A contract on Q1 2026 deliveries shows 65% probability that Tesla delivers fewer than 350,000 vehicles globally, which would mark a weak quarter. They delivered 418,000 in Q4 2025.

That’s consistent with analyst Gene Munster’s recent warning that Tesla’s real value now lies in physical AI, not car deliveries.

The skepticism extends beyond sales. A contract on Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30 sits at just 23%. Optimus release by year-end trades at 19%. Robovan preorders before 2027 are at 22%.

The pattern is clear: bettors are pricing every major Tesla milestone as unlikely.

Morningstar’s Michael Field told CNBC that Chinese automakers like BYD Company (OTC:BYDDY) have a cost advantage that “may prove insurmountable.”

Bulls Aren’t Backing Down

Not everyone is bearish. Wedbush’s Dan Ives maintains a $600 base case and $800 bull case, calling 2026 the “most important year” for Tesla.

The Polymarket contract on TSLA closing above $400 by end of March sits at 54%. Traders appear modestly bullish on the stock holding current levels, but bearish on fundamental delivery numbers.

The stock is currently trading around $401, down around 10% this year.

The bet: Tesla’s valuation is increasingly decoupled from its car business. That thesis faces its next major stress test when Q1 delivery numbers cross the wire in early April.

Image: Shutterstock

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