President Donald Trump said Thursday he has “no concern” about rising gas prices as the Iran war sends crude to its highest levels in nearly two years. “If they rise, they rise,” he told Reuters.

Crude oil is currently just around $88, and Polymarket’s bettors seem convinced it’s only going higher.

What The Money Says

The Polymarket contract for what price crude oil will hit in March has already drawn $7.75 million in volume.

The $90 strike sits at 84%. The $100 strike at 61%. The $110 strike trades at 32%, and $120 at 22%.

Oil above $100 a barrel would likely tip the global economy toward recession, according to multiple Wall Street forecasts, and bettors are pricing a significant chance it gets there this month.

To meaningfully slow growth, oil would likely need to stay above that level for an extended period, not just touch it.

It Wasn’t Bombs That Closed Hormuz

Seven of twelve clubs in the International Group of P&I Clubs pulled war risk coverage for the Persian Gulf on March 1-2.

Those clubs insure roughly 90% of the world’s ocean-going tonnage.

Without P&I cover, vessels are effectively frozen out of the commercial system: ports won’t accept them, cargo owners won’t load them, and banks won’t finance the voyage, according to industry analysts.

Trump ordered the DFC on March 3 to offer replacement political risk insurance for Gulf shipping.

But Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official, said “escorting and insuring will take some time to implement.”

Hormuz tanker transits dropped to just four on March 1, down from a daily average of 24, according to energy intelligence firm Vortexa.

Lloyd’s List estimates roughly 200 tankers are now effectively stuck in the Gulf, unable to move without cover.

The Timeline Problem

The war continues in Iran, and a deal may be hard to reach when Iran doesn’t currently have a supreme leader to negotiate with. Trump said Thursday he wants to be involved in selecting the replacement.

Goldman Sachs said Wednesday that if Hormuz flows stay flat for five more weeks, Brent would likely hit $100. Oil is up 28% this week. United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) is up 32% year-to-date.

Polymarket’s ceasefire contract gives just 28% odds of a deal by March 31, suggesting the supply crunch may have weeks left to run.

Image: Imagn