Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed. Before hostilities began, roughly 60 ships transited the strait daily. That number is now near zero.

Robin Brooks, a Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institution, flagged the breakdown on Substack on Friday. He has been more bearish than most analysts all week.

“Twenty million barrels of oil transit the Straits of Hormuz every day,” Brooks wrote. That’s almost three times Russia’s daily exports.

The United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:USO) surged 9.98% to $105.92 on Friday. The United States Brent Oil Fund LP (NYSE:BNO) jumped 8.08%.

Brent crude hit around $90 a barrel — its highest since April 2024, according to data from Trading Economics.

Brooks: Iran Is Fighting for Survival, Not Negotiation

Brooks argues the Iranian regime’s calculus is straightforward. It cannot match U.S. and Israeli military power. So it targets oil.

“The Iranian regime is battling for its survival,” he wrote. “Its only play is to spike oil prices as much as possible.”

Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) destroyed an underground bunker beneath Ali Khamenei‘s leadership compound in Tehran Friday morning, deploying around 50 fighter jets guided by Israeli Military Intelligence.

Brooks notes that U.S. pledges of naval escorts don’t solve the core problem. Iran can still hit pipelines, ports, and oil infrastructure beyond the strait.

One Drone Could Detonate a Global Oil Crisis

The math is stark. Before the conflict, 60 tankers transited Hormuz daily in both directions. Protecting every one of them is a logistical near-impossibility.

“All Iran needs to do is to sneak through a couple of drones to blow up one ship,” Brooks wrote, “and we’re going from what is currently a very serious incident to a massive oil shock.”

Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that Gulf exporters would halt production within days if tankers cannot pass.

Oil Prices Up 20% This Week — and Brooks Says More Upside Remains

Brent crude is up more than 18% since the end of last week, per Brooks.

WTI crude futures climbed more than 8% to $88 a barrel on Friday, according to Trading Economics — on track for their biggest weekly jump since 2022.

Brooks compared the current episode directly to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He says this one is far larger.

If an actual tanker attack occurs, Brooks warns the consequences extend well beyond oil. “Oil prices would spike, the Dollar would rise sharply, emerging market central banks would be selling Treasuries,” he wrote. That pressure could destabilize U.S. Treasury basis and swap spread trades.

“The US and global markets are very vulnerable,” he added.

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