In an interview recorded earlier this week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the Trump administration is watching reports that Russia is feeding Iran information about U.S. military positioning in the Middle East, arguing the U.S. can counter any such help as fighting intensifies. The comments land after U.S.-Israeli strikes and a widening volley of missile and drone attacks across Israel and Gulf states and as prediction market odds point to a conflict that traders don't see ending quickly.

Speaking with CBS News’ "60 Minutes," Hegseth said that the U.S. is monitoring communications and incorporating what it learns into operational planning. He said Americans should feel confident that President Donald Trump understands "who’s talking to who" and that activity viewed as improper is being met with a forceful response.

According to a Friday Washington Post report, Moscow has been supplying Tehran with classified data regarding the positioning and movement of American military forces stationed across the Middle East region, encompassing both naval vessels and air assets. Three individuals with direct access to intelligence matters informed the publication that this intelligence exchange commenced following the dramatic escalation of hostilities during the previous weekend’s developments.

During the interview, Hegseth said that Trump can deliver messages to Russia directly or through intermediaries, arguing Trump has relationships with leaders that prior administrations lacked.

When questioned about whether Moscow’s involvement posed a threat to American military personnel, Hegseth responded by emphasizing that the United States is primarily focused on creating danger for its opponents.

“We’re putting the other guys in danger, and that’s our job,” Hegseth said. “So we’re not concerned about that. But the only ones that need to be worried right now are Iranians that think they’re gonna live.”

Geopolitical Tensions Rise Amid Intelligence Sharing

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer recently criticized Trump over reports that Russia is providing Iran with intelligence on U.S. military positions, stating this could indicate a widening conflict that Trump is “already losing control of.” This development follows a report indicating that Russia’s intelligence sharing began after violence escalated last weekend, heightening concerns about U.S. military security and the administration’s handling of the situation.

Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. may temporarily allow certain Russian oil transactions to stabilize global energy markets, a move that Schumer believes prioritizes Moscow’s interests amid rising American energy costs. This backdrop of geopolitical tension and economic implications highlights ongoing challenges as the U.S. navigates its military strategies in the region, particularly in light of the growing conflict in the Middle East.

What Are The Odds Of Escalation?

Trading on Polymarket has reflected expectations for a longer conflict, with a ceasefire by March 15 priced at 26% and by March 31 at 46%. The market also put the odds of U.S. military entry into Iran by Dec. 31 at 38%, using a definition that includes special operations forces but excludes intelligence operatives.

When pressed on timing at the Pentagon, Hegseth declined to pin down a duration and said Trump has flexibility to describe a timeline that could shift. The briefing also cited four U.S. service members killed, with Trump warning on Sunday that there will "likely be more."

Another Polymarket contract tracked the probability of the Strait of Hormuz closing before month-end at 43%. The waterway is a critical conduit, with about 20% of global oil shipments passing through it.