Market Overview

Stocks were down again last week as oil prices had one of their biggest weeks in history off the back of the conflict in Iran. The silver lining here is that the Nasdaq was down the least, finishing only 1.24% lower. Energy won the week, but the mega-cap tech names put in solid performances, and those peaked well before the rest of the market back in October. This is a sign that the conditions for a market bottom are forming, although some residual volatility into this week would be expected. This is setting up the biggest buying opportunity of 2026.

Stocks I Like

NextNav (NASDAQ:NN) – 65% Return Potential

What's Happening

• NextNav Inc. (NN) is a leading provider of next-generation positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) solutions, delivering advanced vertical positioning services like Pinnacle for public safety and TerraPoiNT as a resilient GPS alternative, offering investors exposure to the rapidly growing location technology and geospatial intelligence sector with a focus on innovation, accuracy, and national security applications.
• The last quarter showed revenue of $887 thousand and a loss of $18.21 million.
• The valuation in NN is elevated. Its Price-to-Sales is a whopping 400.30 while its Book Value is -0.16.
• At a technical level, NN is shaping up nicely within a saucer formation, which leaves the door open for a major surge higher.

Why It's Happening

• NextNav Inc. is on the verge of unlocking massive spectrum value through potential FCC approvals for its 900 MHz band to enable 5G-based positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) services, addressing critical gaps in GPS reliability for national security, emergency services, and urban environments. This regulatory catalyst could transform NextNav into a key enabler of resilient location technology, driving significant monetization opportunities and share price appreciation as the U.S. pushes for spectrum efficiency amid growing geopolitical needs.
• Strategic positioning in the AI and IoT boom enhances NextNav’s growth story, with its advanced 3D geolocation capabilities complementing satellite systems for indoor and urban applications in IoT, logistics, and smart cities. As demand surges for precise, interference-resistant location data in an increasingly connected world, NextNav’s nationwide network coverage sets it apart, creating a compelling narrative of long-term dominance in a multi-billion-dollar market.
• Potential for asymmetric returns from spectrum monetization underpins NextNav’s investment appeal, with historical transactions suggesting valuations that could propel shares far beyond current levels upon approval. As the company navigates toward 5G deployment and partnerships, this high-stakes opportunity creates an exciting story of turning underutilized assets into a powerhouse for next-gen connectivity and location services.
• NN is a candidate for a short squeeze with roughly 17% of the floated shares being sold short.
• Analyst Ratings:
  • RF Lafferty: Buy
  • B. Riley Securities: Buy

My Action Plan (65% Return Potential)

• I am bullish on NN above $13.50-$14.00. My upside target is $27.00-$28.00.

EcoPetrol (NYSE:EC) – 61% Return Potential

What's Happening

• Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) is a leading integrated energy company in Colombia, engaged in the exploration, production, refining, transportation, and marketing of oil, natural gas, and petrochemicals, offering investors exposure to the rapidly growing energy and hydrocarbons sector with a focus on sustainable operations, resource diversification, and emerging market growth.
• The last quarterly report showed revenue of $29.67 trillion and earnings of $1.81 trillion.
• Valuation is very solid in EC. P/E is at 9.25, Price-to-Sales is at 0.75, and EV to EBITDA is at 3.88.
• From a technical perspective, EC is correcting nicely within a descending price channel. These are continuation patterns that often lead to a continuation of trend, which in this case, is up.

Why It's Happening

• Ecopetrol S.A. is capitalizing on a favorable oil price environment, with upward revisions to Brent forecasts for 2026 supporting stronger revenue potential from its core upstream operations in Colombia. As the country’s largest oil producer, the company is well-positioned to benefit from global energy demand recovery and supply constraints, creating a resilient foundation for sustained cash generation in a stabilizing commodity market.
• Strategic investments in exploration and production are driving Ecopetrol’s long-term growth narrative, with a planned COP 22-27 trillion capital program for 2026 focused on enhancing reserves, optimizing assets, and pursuing portfolio rotation to safeguard cash flows. This disciplined approach to resource development and efficiency improvements positions the company as a key player in Latin America’s energy landscape, fostering value creation amid regional economic expansion.
• High dividend yield and shareholder focus enhance Ecopetrol’s appeal as a reliable income generator, offering double-digit returns backed by its state-owned structure and consistent profitability. This emphasis on rewarding investors through payouts aligns with its robust balance sheet management, building a compelling story of financial stability and long-term value in the integrated oil sector.
• Corporate governance reforms and operational resilience are restoring investor confidence in Ecopetrol, addressing past challenges while leveraging its dominant position in Colombia’s hydrocarbon resources. These improvements, coupled with a focus on sustainable practices and debt management, create a narrative of a maturing enterprise ready to navigate market cycles and capitalize on domestic energy needs.
• Exposure to Colombia’s economic potential underpins Ecopetrol’s bullish outlook, as the company’s integrated operations—from exploration to refining—benefit from national growth initiatives and infrastructure development. This localized strength, combined with strategic asset optimization, positions Ecopetrol to deliver compounding returns as regional stability and energy independence take center stage.
• Analyst Ratings:
  • JP Morgan: Neutral
  • Goldman Sachs: Neutral

My Action Plan (61% Return Potential)

• I am bullish on EC above $9.00-$10.00. My upside target is $20.00-$21.00.

One Stop Systems (NASDAQ:OSS) – 45% Return Potential

What's Happening

• One Stop Systems, Inc. (OSS) is a leading provider of rugged high-performance computing, storage, and switch fabric solutions for edge AI, machine learning, sensor processing, and autonomous applications, offering investors exposure to the rapidly growing artificial intelligence and edge computing sector with a focus on innovative, durable systems for harsh environments.
• The company's most recent quarterly report showed revenue of $18.76 million with earnings of $708.11 thousdand.
• Valuation in OSS is a bit steep. Price-to-Sales is at 3.08 and Book Value is 1.07.
• From a charting point of view, OSS is consolidating nicely within a descending price channel, which points to an eventual continuation in the uptrend.

Why It's Happening

• One Stop Systems Inc. is transforming into a focused AI transportable computing leader following the $22.4 million sale of its Bressner Technology subsidiary in January 2026, freeing up capital for strategic acquisitions and enhancing its high-margin defense and commercial platform business. This pivot streamlines operations and positions the company to capitalize on the growing demand for rugged, edge AI solutions in mission-critical applications, setting the stage for accelerated revenue growth and improved profitability.
• Securing multi-million-dollar defense contracts bolsters One Stop Systems’ growth story, including a $10.5 million Navy deal and a $1.2 million order from a U.S. prime contractor for advanced integrated systems. These wins highlight the company’s expertise in high-performance computing for military applications, providing long-term revenue visibility and reinforcing its role as a key supplier in national security and aerospace sectors amid rising global tensions.
• Innovation in next-generation platforms like the proprietary PCIe Gen5 Ponto drives One Stop Systems’ competitive edge, enabling higher average selling prices and margin expansion starting in 2026. By focusing on AI, machine learning, and edge computing, the company is tapping into emerging opportunities in defense and commercial markets, creating a flywheel of design wins and scalable growth in a rapidly evolving tech landscape.
• Robust financial outlook and path to profitability underpin One Stop Systems’ resilience, with raised 2025 revenue guidance to $63-65 million and expectations for EBITDA positivity by 2026. The company’s strong book-to-bill ratio and multi-year contracts provide clear visibility, allowing it to navigate market cycles while investing in high-growth areas like rugged AI systems for unmanned vehicles and situational awareness.
• Growing retail and institutional enthusiasm fuels One Stop Systems’ momentum, with recent 50% stock rallies reflecting optimism around defense wins and the Bressner sale’s strategic benefits. As the company eyes $850 million in identifiable value over three years from contracts and opportunities, it emerges as a compelling story of focused execution in AI-driven edge computing for defense and beyond.
• Analyst Ratings:
  • Roth Capital: Buy
  • Lake Street: Buy
  • Benchmark: Buy

My Action Plan (45% Return Potential)

• I am bullish on OSS above $7.00-$7.50. My upside target is $12.00-$13.00.

Market-Moving Catalysts for the Week Ahead

When Prices Hold Despite Bad News

When bad news emerges—such as disappointing earnings, geopolitical tensions, or economic downturn signals—but it fails to trigger a significant decline in stock prices, it can paradoxically signal bullish sentiment in the market.

The situation in Iran remains tense, but the broader resilience in stocks suggests that both traders and investors had already priced in the negativity, exhausting potential sellers and leaving room for buyers to dominate.

In essence, any stock’s ability to hold steady or even rise amid adversity demonstrates underlying strength, investor confidence, and potential for upward momentum as the “bad news” hurdle is cleared without damage, often paving the way for rallies driven by positive catalysts or renewed optimism.

Inflation and GDP

This week’s pivotal economic data releases—the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) on March 11 and the second estimate for Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) alongside January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation on March 13—hold substantial implications for financial markets and the Federal Reserve’s policy path, especially ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting.

Hotter-than-expected inflation figures could ignite market volatility by fueling fears of sustained price pressures, prompting the Fed to maintain or tighten rates, which might trigger sell-offs in equities as borrowing costs remain elevated and growth prospects dim.

On the flip side, cooler inflation readings might spark rallies by validating rate cut expectations, easing financial conditions and boosting investor confidence. A robust GDP print could signal economic resilience, potentially tempering dovish bets if it hints at overheating, whereas a downward revision might amplify recession concerns, pressuring the Fed toward more accommodative measures to support employment and stability.

Sector & Industry Strength

The market internals remain highly turbulent and emphasize the near-term risks in the tape. Going back to the start of Q4 2025, energy (XLE) is by far and away the top-performing sector in the market. This isn't the setup that bulls dream of.

All of the growth sectors like tech (XLK), consumer discretionary (XLY), and financials (XLF) are at the very bottom of the performance back. This warns that conditions need to improve before a sustained bull trend can start again.

However, aside from energy (XLE) a lot of the defensive oriented sectors like consumer staples (XLP), healthcare (XLV), and utilities (XLU) were hit hard last week. This is creating a backdrop where growth can come back into favor.

1 week	3 Weeks	13 Weeks	26 Weeks
Energy	Energy	Energy	Energy

Editor's Note: The inflationary flush is underway.

The Most Important Turn of the Year? (Sector ETF: XLK/SPY) 

This is the exact turn that needed to happen for bulls to recapture momentum in this market. It's time to check back in on the stock market's most important ratio – the one between the tech sector (XLK) and the S&P 500 (SPY).

Stocks live and die by the tech sector. It makes up 30% of the S&P 500. This ratio peaked back in late October and corresponded with the top in the Nasdaq and the sideways market that's been in effect since then.

We broke out before from a wedge formation, which signaled an acceleration in upside momentum. We've since come back down to retest this breakout, and now, it looks like former-resistance-turned-support has held. If this is a higher-low with respect to the trend, stocks are about to rip higher.

Crypto Tide Turning? (Sector ETF: BTC/SPY) 

It's been a crypto winter since the all-time high in Bitcoin back in October. Not only did crypt collapse, but it dropped significantly more than the S&P 500 over the past few months, which rendered it "dead money" for both traders and investors.

Take a look at the ratio between Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPY). The ratio declined to a seemingly important level. It retested and even slightly exceeded the low from July 2024, which preceded the last major bull run.

This is a logical level for Bitcoin to stage a rebound relative to the S&P. It doesn't mean we're completely out of the woods yet, but taking a swing here isn't a bad idea, especially if it eventually resolves from the broader saucer formation.

Junk Debt Resiliency (Sector ETF: HYG/IEI) 

Even with all the turbulence and geopolitical events markets have digested in recent weeks, I am remarkably impressed by the resiliency in junk bonds (HYG) relative to 3-7 Year Treasuries (IEI).

The concept behind this is simple – if we were truly going into a prolonged risk-off environment, this ratio would have cratered. Instead, it's continued to go sideways and it looks to have completed yet another higher-low with respect to the trend.

It's pretty straightforward – stock market crashes don't happen when junk debt outperforms Treasuries. If this ratio starts to resolve higher, which looks likely, market declines are likely to be muted and drawn out, while rallies could be explosive.

Cryptocurrency 

This week, we’re circling back to Ethereum as the cryptocurrency market grapples with persistent volatility. The notorious four-year cycle remains in play, as Ethereum tries to recover after dropping to its lowest level since May 2025.

Over the last week, Ethereum caught a nice bid, but still remains stuck below resistance at 2100-2200. As long as it stays below this level, bearish momentum is expected to persist, setting the stage for additional drops.

A secondary support band exists around 1650-1750, which Ethereum touched recently. This zone is a pivotal checkpoint: holding steady here could lay the groundwork for a significant market bottom, creating what might be one of the best entry points in years. That said, a deeper plunge to 1350-1400 would be ideal, as it could trigger genuine capitulation and clear the path for recovery. If it were to clear 2600-2800, it would send a strong signal that a low is complete.

Legal Disclosures:

This communication is provided for information purposes only. 

This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, from sources believed to be reliable, but Benzinga does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to Benzinga and/or its affiliates and an analyst’s involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Benzinga does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, Benzinga may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. Clients should contact analysts and execute transactions through a Benzinga subsidiary or affiliate in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise.

This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Benzinga. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of Benzinga. Copyright 2022 Benzinga. All rights reserved.