Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) is down 16% in March as the company unveiled its R2 SUV at SXSW this week.

CEO RJ Scaringe called it a “make-or-break product.”

The launch model starts at $57,990, nearly $13,000 above the $45,000 entry price the company has been advertising. That cheaper version? Pushed to late 2027.

Rivian’s CSO Wassym Bensaid told the Wall Street Journal on Friday that only Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Rivian have caught on in the U.S. because they had the range, performance and value that customers want.

"We know that there are just two companies in the U.S. who know how to do it: Tesla and us,"

Chinese competitors like BYD, the world’s largest EV maker, kept out of the U.S. by large tariffs.

The R2 is Rivian’s first shot at the mass market. Its current R1 lineup starts around $70,000 and most sell north of $90,000. The R2 is meant to change that, starting at $57,990 this spring with a cheaper version coming later.

Scaringe is running the Tesla playbook: start expensive, go mainstream later.

The target is the Model Y. Tesla sold nearly 360,000 of them in the U.S. in 2025, making it America’s bestselling EV.

TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli projects full-scale R2 demand could eventually top 200,000 units annually.

Polymarket bettors appear skeptical about the broader EV picture.

A contract tracking Tesla’s Q1 2026 deliveries is currently pricing in an 80% probability that the automaker falls short of 350,000 units, putting the company on pace for a steep year-over-year decline.

Rivian’s deliveries fell 18% in 2025 to 42,247 vehicles as the EV market softened. The company lost $3.6 billion on the year and has never turned an annual profit.

The Vibes Are Off

“If you could have chosen a worse time, I don’t know when it would have exactly been,” said Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds. Most automakers have pivoted back to gas. Electric-only Rivian does not have that luxury.

The $7,500 federal EV tax credit is dead. Tariffs could add roughly $2,000 per unit in battery costs, according to analyst estimates.

“This step from our flagship products to mass-market is one that we get to make once,” Scaringe said.

Rivian begins R2 test drives at SXSW this week.

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