Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) heads into Sunday’s Academy Awards with a record 16 nominations for “Sinners,” the most of any film in Oscar history.

But on Polymarket, where traders have wagered over $33 million on the Best Picture outcome alone, Ryan Coogler’s vampire epic sits at just 21%.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another”, which earned 13 nominations, commands 76% odds on both Polymarket and Kalshi after sweeping the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, DGA, PGA, and WGA.

“No film in history that has won at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, ACE Eddies, DGA, PGA and WGA has ever lost best picture,” Variety noted in its final Oscar predictions.

While historical precedent points heavily to “One Battle After Another,” the 76% market price suggests traders believe the massive fan enthusiasm behind “Sinners” still leaves room for a historic upset.

When Benzinga last covered the Oscar prediction markets at nomination time, total Best Picture volume stood at $16 million. It has nearly doubled since.

The Best Actor Race Is Where The Money Is Moving

The Best Actor category is the tightest contest heading into Sunday and the one where prediction market odds have shifted most dramatically. Michael B. Jordan is at 57% on Polymarket’s Best Actor market for his dual role in “Sinners,” with Timothée Chalamet trailing at 33% for “Marty Supreme.”

That is a complete reversal from January, when Chalamet’s Golden Globe win pushed his odds above 70%.

Jordan flipped the market after taking the SAG Award earlier this month.

Best Director and Best Actress appear all but settled. Anderson commands 92% odds for Best Director.

Irish actress Jessie Buckley holds 96% for Best Actress for her portrayal of Shakespeare’s wife in “Hamnet,” having swept every major precursor award.

What Else To Know

Prediction markets have become a fixture of awards season.

Polymarket was the exclusive prediction market partner of the Golden Globes in January, displaying live odds on the CBS broadcast, a move that drew both record engagement and viewer backlash.

A strong Oscar showing could extend the commercial afterlife of “Sinners,” which grossed over $370 million worldwide on a $90-100 million budget and was the highest-grossing original film in over a decade.

WBD signed a definitive merger agreement with Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ:PSKY) on Feb. 27 in a deal valued at roughly $110 billion, pending regulatory approval expected in Q3. Sunday’s ceremony may be one of the last major awards nights for Warner Bros. as an independent studio.

The 98th Academy Awards air Sunday at 7 p.m. ET on ABC, owned by Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS).

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