Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM) CEO Marc Benioff said last week that warnings about AI-driven mass layoffs were overblown. The numbers say otherwise.

Block Inc (NYSE:XYZ) cut 4,000 jobs in February, roughly 40% of staff, with CEO Jack Dorsey explicitly blaming AI.

Atlassian Corporation (NASDAQ:TEAM) followed with 1,600 layoffs last week to “self-fund” its AI pivot.

Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) is now reportedly planning to cut over 15,000 workers, or 20% of its workforce, to offset AI infrastructure spending that could hit $135 billion this year. A Meta spokesperson called the report “speculative.”

Wall Street rewarded all three. Meta rose 3% Monday. Atlassian popped 2% afterhours. Block surged 23% on its announcement day.

Where Prediction Markets Stand

Kalshi’s “How high will unemployment get in 2026?” contract gives 49% odds that unemployment breaks above 5% this year.

That probability was around 37% before the Iran war began in late February, and has climbed alongside the layoff wave and a 40% spike in oil prices.

The contract has $441,000 in volume.

Current U.S. unemployment sits at 4.6%, already a four-year high.

Further down the ladder, traders give 24% odds of breaking 6% and 13% for above 7%.

For context, unemployment peaked at 10% during the Great Recession, when household net worth dropped 18%, the S&P 500 fell 57%, and the job market took over six years to recover.

Goldman Sachs has flagged that unemployment among college graduates aged 20 to 24 has climbed to 8.5%, up 70% from its 2022 low, citing AI and efficiency measures as potential drivers.

The AI Spending Bet

The companies cutting jobs are simultaneously spending at record levels. Meta plans up to $135 billion in AI capital expenditure this year. The hyperscalers collectively may deploy $700 billion.

Polymarket’s “AI Bubble Burst by end of 2026” contract trades at 18% with $2.2 million in volume.

Jefferies analysts said Meta’s potential cuts signal a “broader shift” where “AI is increasingly driving productivity,” with implications “across the broader internet/software landscape.”

The Fed is expected to hold rates steady Wednesday, offering no relief for a labor market that may be absorbing the early cost of the AI transition.

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