U.S. and Israeli forces entered day 19 of what they call “Operation Epic Fury” in Iran with no ceasefire in sight.

The Federal Reserve delivers its March rate decision today at 2:00 p.m. ET, against a backdrop of WTI crude near $95 per barrel and mounting fears of inflation for the months ahead.

Key Iran Events In The Last 24 Hours

  • Joe Kent, the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned from his position, citing his opposition to the ongoing war in Iran and President Donald Trump‘s security stance.
  • On Wednesday, Trump posted on social media: “I wonder what would happen if we ‘finished off’ what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called ‘Straight?’ That would get some of our non-responsive ‘Allies’ in gear, and fast!!!”
  • Iranian state television, cited by FinancialJuice, reported that part of the South Pars natural gas field had been targeted in an attack.
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied Tuesday that Tehran requested a ceasefire, directly contradicting statements by Trump.
  • Tehran confirmed the deaths of former parliament speaker Ali Larijani and another senior official in recent strikes.
  • Iran’s parliament speaker said the country would not accept a ceasefire until “the enemy shows regret.”
  • Trump publicly pressured NATO allies and China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway has been effectively closed to commercial tanker traffic since Feb. 28.
  • The Pentagon reported Iranian missile launches are down 90% from opening-day levels. Drone attacks are down 86%.
  • Goldman Sachs said Tuesday the stock market “underestimates” Iran war risk following Monday’s equity bounce. 

Oil Market Update

WTI crude oil futures, as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), traded at $94.86 per barrel early Wednesday.

The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked to commercial tanker traffic. The waterway handles approximately 20% of global oil flow.

Since the start of the war on Feb. 28, prices have risen approximately 40% from a pre-war level near $68 per barrel.

Iran War And Macro Impacts: What Prediction Markets Say

Military action extends past March 31: 89%. Prediction markets are pricing in a conflict that runs well into spring at minimum.

Strait of Hormuz normalization: 26% by April 30. The probability of normal tanker traffic resuming by end of April continues to fall.  With Trump signaling he may escalate rather than negotiate, and Iran refusing to ask for a ceasefire, traders see the chokepoint remaining closed deep into the second quarter.

March U.S. CPI (Annual): Polymarket assigns a 96% probability to annual inflation coming in at or above 2.8%. The BLS report for March is scheduled for April 10.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?: Market now shows zero cuts at 23.8%, up 9 percentage points in 24 hours. One cut at 25 bps remains the leading outcome at 31%, but the gap is narrowing fast. Two cuts at 22% and three cuts at 11% round out the distribution.

Latest Commentary From Wall Street Analysts

  • “The Iran war could result in a 10%-15% market correction,” Ed Yardeni, President at Yardeni Research, said on Tuesday during CNBC “Squawk Box”. Yardeni raised his market meltdown probability to 35% from 20% and cut his meltup odds to 5%. He cited the consumer gas price shock as the key transmission channel.
  • Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist David Mericle wrote that “the most important developments since the last FOMC meeting are the start of the war in Iran and the spike in oil prices.” Mericle said the Fed faces a dual risk: earlier cuts may be needed to address labor market softening, while a higher inflation path could delay them.
  • “Rising oil prices are just one reason why he thinks the Iran war is damaging to the economy,” said Mohamed El-Erian on Tuesday. El-Erian raised his recession probability to 35%, citing compounding risks: higher rates, lower growth, rising unemployment and financial instability.

Global Market Snapshot

  • Equities: S&P 500 futures rose 0.48% to 6732 points ahead of the open. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.62%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 0.52%. Tech led premarket gains amid optimism around AI infrastructure spending.
  • Bonds: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged down nearly 2 basis points to approximately 4.21%. Traders are positioning ahead of the Fed’s 2:00 p.m. ET statement and updated dot plot.
  • Gold: Spot gold (XAU/USD) tumbled 1.7% to $4,917 per ounce, breaking below the $5,000 mark for the first time since the war started.
  • CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the market’s fear gauge, has pulled back from 27.19 to 23.78 but remains elevated above pre-war levels. 

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