Brent Tops $108, Red-Hot PPI Fuels Stagflation Alarm On Fed Day: What's Moving Markets Wednesday?

U.S. equities slid broadly on Wednesday as scorching February producer prices and a fresh surge in oil prices following reported strikes on Iranian energy facilities converged to stoke stagflation fears.

• CRAK ETF is rallying to record highs as fuel prices prices. Check live prices here.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, President Donald Trump renewed his call for lower borrowing costs, writing on social media: "When is ‘Too Late' Powell lowering interest rates?"

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.

Markets will closely scrutinize updated economic projections — the so-called dot plot — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell‘s press conference for any signal about how the oil shock and persistent inflation pressures could alter the rate path.

Traders currently do not expect the first-rate cut until September or October at the earliest, with only one cut penciled in for all of 2026. According to Polymarket, the odds of no rate cuts in 2026 surged to 27%.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.5% to 6,679, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9% to 46,590, and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.4% to 24,682. Small-caps led the declines, with the Russell 2000 shedding nearly 1% to 2,498.

The CBOE Volatility Index — Wall Street’s fear gauge — climbed 4.6% to 23.40 as the breadth of selling widened: across the Russell 1000, losers outnumbered gainers 710 to 290.

Fueling the energy side of the stagflation equation, Brent crude surged 5% to $108.54 per barrel after Iran reported that several of its energy facilities had come under attack — a development widely attributed to Israeli strikes on Iranian natural gas processing plants. 

Interestingly, on April 11, 2011, Trump blamed then-President Obama for rising oil prices, warning that the U.S. would “never, ever recover” if oil prices continued to climb. At the time, crude futures were around $109 a barrel, almost identical to today's prices under President Trump.

WTI crude — as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) — jumped 2.1% to $98.23 per barrel, putting it within striking distance of the $100 threshold.

Energy was the clear outperformer as oil prices surged, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE) up 0.3%. Meanwhile consumer staples lagged, down 1.4%

Wednesday’s Performance In Major US Equity Indices

Key ETF performance as of midday, via Benzinga Pro:

• Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) fell 0.50% to $613.78
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA) fell 0.85% to $466.91
• Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) fell 0.40% to $600.90
• iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) fell 0.82% to $248.01

Producer Inflation Spikes Ahead Of Oil Turmoil

The session’s dominant narrative was set early: the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline producer price index (PPI) jumped 0.7% month-over-month in February, more than double the consensus estimate of 0.3% and the largest monthly gain in seven months.

Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.5%, also well above the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI surged to 3.4% — its highest in a year — while core PPI accelerated to 3.9%, the steepest annual pace in three years.  

The data arrived before the full brunt of the Middle East energy shock has been felt in prices, amplifying fears of a stagflationary trap.

Rising yields added to the risk-off tone. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.23%, while the 2-year yield rose 3.4 bps to 3.72%

Precious metals and industrial metals pulled back alongside the equity selloff. Gold fell 2.87% to $4,863.25 per troy ounce as the stronger dollar weighed, while silver dropped 3.41% to $76.61. Copper slid 2.92% to $5.56 per pound.

Russell 1000 Top 5 Gainers

Source: Koyfin | Updated by 12:00 PM ET

Russell 1000 Top 5 Losers

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