President Donald Trump told reporters Thursday he won’t send troops to the Middle East and said he ordered Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop striking Iranian energy infrastructure.

The comments came after a rapid overnight escalation: Israel hit Iran’s South Pars gas field on Wednesday, and Iran retaliated with missiles targeting LNG facilities in Qatar, refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and gas infrastructure in the UAE.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the U.S. has struck over 7,000 targets across Iran and sunk more than 120 Iranian ships, even as Trump maintained he won’t deploy ground forces.

Iran’s strategy appears to be attrition: keep the Strait shut, spread the pain across Gulf allies, and wait for the economic pressure to force Washington to the table.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket’s U.S.-Iran ceasefire market, with $22.2 million in volume, gives just 6% odds of a deal by March 31. That rises to 31% by end of April, and 52% by the end of June.

A separate contract on whether U.S. forces will enter Iran was pricing 18% odds before March 31, 49% before April 30 and 65% before year-end.

Read together, the two markets paint a picture: a ceasefire is months away at best, and with a fifth of global oil supply, fertilizer feedstocks and commercial shipping bottlenecked at the Strait of Hormuz, traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility that Trump’s “no troops” stance doesn’t survive the economic damage of a prolonged blockade.

The Energy Trade

Brent crude hit $115 Thursday before settling around $109, up 50% since the war began Feb. 28. It was at $69 in early February.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE) touched a 52-week high near $59.62, up over 30% year-to-date, with Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) leading.

The headline numbers may be understating the damage. U.S. crude is trading at a $20-plus discount to Brent, one of the largest gaps on record, while physical crude in Oman is reportedly above $150 a barrel. European natural gas jumped another 30% Thursday. Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter called it what may be the largest energy crisis in history.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated lifting sanctions on Iranian oil tankers and tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Neither moved prices. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a fifth of global oil trade, remains effectively shut.

Image: Shutterstock