President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday night that he would “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz wasn’t reopened within 48 hours.

By Monday morning, he said the U.S. had held “very good and productive conversations” with Iran and postponed all strikes on energy infrastructure for five days.

Iran’s foreign ministry denied any dialogue had taken place, saying Trump’s announcement was designed to lower energy prices.

West Texas Intermediate futures cratered more than 10% to around $89 a barrel. The S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) ripped nearly 2%.

Gold erased its entire 2026 gain, plunging over 6% to $4,285 in what may be the biggest weekly drop since 1983.

Someone Saw It Coming

Between the threat and the walkback, 10 brand-new Polymarket wallets appeared on Sunday, wagering a cumulative $160,000 on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

The potential payout tops $1 million.

The wallets had no prior transaction history and were all created at the same time, according to onchain data first reported by CoinDesk.

After Trump’s latest turnaround, all accounts have made huge paper gains.

This is now a pattern. In late February, analytics firm Bubblemaps flagged six freshly created accounts that netted roughly $1.2 million by betting on the timing of U.S. strikes hours before the first bombs fell.

The largest single wallet turned $61,000 into over $493,000.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) called the trades ‘insane’ and said he is drafting legislation to ban prediction market contracts tied to war and death.

What Polymarket Is Pricing Now

After Trump’s placatory remarks this morning, the chances of a ceasefire have increased dramatically. By month end is at 22%, by April 30th is at 51%, and by year end is at 77%.

The odds of troops on the ground in Iran, or a Kharg Island assault, have fallen dramatically.

“Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?” dropped to 10% and odds for “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control” by April 30 fell to 28%.

On Kalshi, the odds of a recession this year fell from 38% to 33%.

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