The benchmark S&P 500 index pulled back on Tuesday, falling 0.37% to close at 6,556.37, as oil prices resumed their climb and uncertainty around the Iran conflict continued to weigh on sentiment.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning bullish heading into Wednesday. The March 25 market shows a 83% traders betting "Up," with early trading volume crossing $14,000 placed on whether the S&P 500 will open higher or lower.

Why That Number Matters

Markets remain heavily driven by developments in the Middle East and oil price swings. Crude prices climbed again on Tuesday, with Brent settling above $104 per barrel and WTI above $92, as the Iran conflict entered its fourth week and concerns over supply disruptions persisted.

At the same time, diplomatic developments are beginning to shift sentiment. President Donald Trump said the U.S. is "in negotiations right now" with Iran, adding that Tehran wanted to make a deal “so badly.” However, Iran's military has dismissed Trump's latest claim and promised to continue fighting.

A New York Times report said the U.S. has sent Iran a 15-point peace proposal via Pakistan, raising hopes of a potential resolution to the conflict.

Investors are also watching fresh economic data, including February's import and export price indexes, for clues on inflation trends and their potential impact on Federal Reserve policy.

The Bull Case

Futures are pointing higher after signs of possible de-escalation. At 2.12 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.6% to 6,645.75 points.

Markets had surged earlier this week on similar optimism before giving back some gains Tuesday, highlighting how sensitive equities remain to headlines around the conflict.

Corporate catalysts are also in focus, with Chewy Inc. (NYSE:CHWY) and Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ:PAYX) set to report earnings before the bell.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 6,552.09, slightly below the prior close of 6,581, reflecting continued pressure from rising oil prices. The March 24 Polymarket bet resolved "Down," on $215,927 in traded volumes.

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