Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Sen. John Curtis (R-UT) appeared on CNBC to push their Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, introduced March 23, and they came armed with sound bites.

“If it acts like gambling, if it looks like gambling; it is gambling,” Curtis said. “That’s been very clear where that belongs.”

The bill would bar any CFTC-registered platform from listing contracts tied to sporting events or athletic competitions.

That puts Kalshi and Polymarket squarely in the crosshairs, but the collateral damage may be wider than the two prediction markets.

The DraftKings Whiplash

DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) gapped up nearly 4% Monday when the bill dropped.

Investors saw it as Congress killing a competitor.

Today the stock reversed hard, falling more than 6% to around $22, as traders realized DraftKings Predictions, the company’s own CFTC-regulated event contracts product, would also be banned under the legislation.

CEO Jason Robins called Predictions a “massive, incremental opportunity” on the Q4 2025 earnings call.

Now that opportunity sits under a legislative cloud.

DKNG is down over 30% year-to-date. Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) is up over 1%.

In a recent note, TD Cowen projects that none of the many bills regarding prediction markets are likely to become law, but the real battle will begin in 2028.

The Insider Trading Warning

Schiff went further, flagging a Polymarket trader with 93% accuracy on Iran war events as “heavily suggestive of insider trading.”

He argued blockchain-based platforms make enforcement nearly impossible.

Curtis painted a darker picture. “Imagine betting on a high school athlete getting hurt the day of a high school game,” he said. “That’s why this needs the appropriate regulation.”

Both Kalshi and Polymarket announced new self-policing measures this week, blocking athletes and politicians from trading on their own events.

Schiff dismissed it as “aspirational,” noting that without real enforcement infrastructure, family members and staffers could still trade on insider knowledge undetected.

The Squeeze Play

The bill arrives in the middle of an escalating multi-front war on prediction markets.

Arizona’s attorney general filed criminal charges against Kalshi last week. Eleven states have sent cease-and-desist orders.

CFTC Chairman Mike Selig has moved in the opposite direction, filing court briefs defending federal jurisdiction over the platforms.

Kalshi fired back at the senators, calling the bill “motivated by casino interests that are threatened by competition.”

Both Schiff and Curtis claimed strong bipartisan support.

“This is one of those rare opportunities for the parties to get together and do something meaningful,” Schiff said.

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