The S&P 500 rose 0.54% on Wednesday to close at 6,591.90, as easing oil prices lifted sentiment despite ongoing uncertainty around the Iran war.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is bearish heading into Thursday. The March 26 market shows a slight edge toward "Up," with trading volume building early on bets over whether the S&P 500 will open higher or lower.

Why That Number Matters

Markets remain tightly linked to developments in the Iran war and movements in oil prices.

Crude prices cooled on Wednesday, with WTI settling at $90.32 per barrel and Brent at $102.22, as traders weighed the possibility of a ceasefire. The pullback in energy prices helped support equities after several sessions of oil-driven volatility.

However, the geopolitical outlook remains uncertain. Iran has reportedly rejected a 15 point U.S. plan to pause the war, issuing its own counterproposal instead, as it launched more attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab countries.

Investors will also be watching initial jobless claims data due Thursday, which could offer fresh insight into the strength of the labor market and broader economic conditions.

The Bull Countercase

Equities have shown resilience this week as oil prices ease from recent highs and diplomatic channels remain open.

The major indexes, including Dow Jones and the tech-heavy Nasdaq, are now higher on the week, recovering from last week's sharp selloff triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

S&P 500 futures were ticking lower in early trading, suggesting a cautious start. At 2.13 AM ET, the benchmark index was down 0.41% to 6,613.25 points.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 6,598.35, above the prior close of 6,556.37, as optimism around potential peace talks lifted premarket sentiment. The March 25 Polymarket bet resolved "Up," with traders steadily anticipating a stronger open on $158,827 in traded volumes.

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