The S&P 500 rose on Wednesday, gaining 0.72% to close at 6,575.32, as optimism around a potential end to the Iran war lifted sentiment for a second straight session.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is turning cautious heading into Thursday. The April 2 market shows just a 5% chance for “Up” with early trading activity building on whether the S&P 500 will open higher or lower.

Why That Number Matters

Sentiment shifted sharply overnight after President Donald Trump signaled that the war could continue, despite earlier optimism around a ceasefire. While Trump said the U.S. is "getting very close" to ending the war, he also warned that military action against Iran could intensify.

Oil prices reacted immediately, with WTI crude jumping more than 6% to above $106 per barrel and Brent crude rising over 6% as well, reflecting renewed fears of supply disruption.

Investors are also watching initial jobless claims data for the week ending March 28 due Thursday, the final trading day of the week before markets close for Good Friday. The March jobs report is scheduled for release on Friday morning.

The Bull Countercase

Markets have shown resilience in recent sessions, with equities rising earlier in the week on expectations that the conflict could wind down.

However, futures are pointing sharply lower following the latest geopolitical developments. At 5.07 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were down -1.12% at 6,543.50 points.

How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 6,556.56, above the prior close of 6,528.52, as optimism around ceasefire discussions supported premarket sentiment. The April 1 Polymarket bet resolved "Up," with traders anticipating a higher open on $363,843 in traded volume.

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