Something has been happening to American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP) every spring for a quarter century.
Starting around April 14, the stock tends to climb — not every single year, but with a consistency that stands out across rate cycles, recessions and geopolitical shocks.
Data from Seasonax, which tracks 25 years of AXP trading behavior, identifies an April 14 to June 7 window as one of the most reliable seasonal patterns in the financial sector.
Over that stretch, the stock has delivered a positive return 20 out of 25 times — an 80% win rate — with an average gain of 7.27% per trade.
The Numbers Behind the Amex Spring Trade
| Metric | Value |
| Average Return | 7.27% |
| Median Return | 6.56% |
| Win rate | 80% | Gains 20/25 |
| Best trade | +39.17% (2009) |
| Worst trade | −18.83% (2010) |
What the Pattern Actually Looks Like
The AXP spring window is not a string of gentle single-digit moves — it includes a +39.17% gain in the spring of 2009, a +28.60% surge in the pandemic rebound of 2020 and an +18.08% run last year.
The five losses in the dataset are also informative.
The worst came in 2010, when AXP fell 18.83% as European sovereign debt fears rattled financial stocks globally.
The 2022 loss of 6.88% arrived when the Federal Reserve began its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in four decades.
In both cases, macro shocks of unusual severity overrode the seasonal tailwind.
When nothing systemic intervenes, the pattern holds.
Year-by-Year Breakdown
| Year | AXP Start Price | AXP End Price | Profit % | Max Rise | Max Drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | $23.86 | $25.49 | +6.83% | +19.52% | 0.00% |
| 2002 | $25.10 | $24.47 | −2.49% | +11.73% | −2.49% |
| 2003 | $22.46 | $26.98 | +20.11% | +22.16% | 0.00% |
| 2004 | $31.68 | $32.73 | +3.31% | +3.31% | −3.33% |
| 2005 | $32.80 | $35.09 | +6.96% | +6.96% | −2.54% |
| 2006 | $37.74 | $39.58 | +4.86% | +7.41% | 0.00% |
| 2007 | $43.80 | $46.92 | +7.14% | +11.12% | −0.55% |
| 2008 | $32.35 | $33.40 | +3.25% | +20.15% | 0.00% |
| 2009 | $14.40 | $20.04 | +39.17% | +54.10% | 0.00% |
| 2010 | $37.09 | $30.10 | −18.83% | +3.42% | −18.83% |
| 2011 | $37.26 | $39.71 | +6.56% | +12.95% | 0.00% |
| 2012 | $47.67 | $45.54 | −4.48% | +5.57% | −7.61% |
| 2013 | $53.55 | $65.20 | +21.75% | +21.75% | 0.00% |
| 2014 | $72.24 | $80.74 | +11.78% | +11.78% | 0.00% |
| 2015 | $67.97 | $67.39 | −0.86% | +2.35% | −2.93% |
| 2016 | $54.35 | $57.29 | +5.41% | +6.24% | −0.59% |
| 2017 | $67.90 | $70.68 | +4.10% | +5.17% | −1.46% |
| 2018 | $84.14 | $91.22 | +8.42% | +9.72% | 0.00% |
| 2019 | $100.84 | $110.49 | +9.57% | +9.57% | 0.00% |
| 2020 | $81.93 | $105.37 | +28.60% | +28.60% | −11.72% |
| 2021 | $138.74 | $156.16 | +12.55% | +12.55% | −2.10% |
| 2022 | $172.29 | $160.43 | −6.88% | +4.03% | −15.41% |
| 2023 | $157.52 | $165.56 | +5.10% | +5.27% | −9.37% |
| 2024 | $213.72 | $227.68 | +6.53% | +11.30% | −0.41% |
| 2025 | $252.73 | $298.43 | +18.08% | +18.44% | −5.04% |
Why Spring? The Business Cycle Behind the Calendar
Seasonality also reflects recurring patterns in corporate activity, consumer spending and institutional portfolio behavior.
For American Express, which earns fees on travel, entertainment and business spending, the spring period coincides with rising cardholder activity as the vacation and conference season accelerates into June.
First-quarter earnings, typically released in mid-April, often crystallize the thesis.
AXP is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 23. Investors positioning ahead of that print — and ahead of the Memorial Day spending surge that hits AmEx’s merchant network — have historically bid the stock higher through the first week of June.
American Express is entering its most reliable seasonal window, from the deepest discount to its all-time high in three years.
The stock peaked at $387.49 in late 2025 and has since retreated 18% to roughly $312 — a dislocation that traders following seasonality patterns could read as a setup, not a warning.
Photo: Shutterstock
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