The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday, declining 0.11% to close at 6,816.89 as the ceasefire with Iran was on shaky grounds, with the Islamic Republic blaming Israel for violating the ceasefire with attacks on Lebanon.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is bearish heading into Monday. The April 13 contract shows only 14% of traders betting “Up,” following $94,055 in traded volume on the April 10 outcome.

Why That Number Matters

The market is bracing for the impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade announced by President Donald Trump following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad.

Oil prices surged early Monday morning to $103.54, up 7.22%.

According to AAA, the average gas price in the U.S. is $4.125 per gallon, compared to $3.598 per gallon a month ago.

The Bear Case

Markets had earlier surged ahead of the peace talks between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad. With the peace talks failing and Trump announcing a blockade, markets are likely to decline.

How The Previous Bet Played Out

The S&P 500 opened Friday at 6,839.24, well above the prior close of 6,824.66, as markets geared up for the peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. The April 10 Polymarket bet resolved “Up,” with traders correctly anticipating a higher open.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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