Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may still be in a bear phase, with only a 25% probability that the market has already bottomed, according to analyst Benjamin Cowen.

Bottom Likely At Lower Levels

In an Apr. 13 podcast, Cowen said that even a rally toward $80,000 would not confirm a cycle bottom.

He emphasized that bear markets are often deceptive, featuring extended upward moves before sharp declines that catch both bulls and bears off guard.

Based on historical patterns, Cowen believes a more reliable bottom could form in the $30,000–$50,000 range, consistent with past drawdowns from peak levels.

He added that Bitcoin's current low-volatility, range-bound behavior is typical of mid-cycle conditions, where price consolidates for months before a larger move.

Cowen expects volatility to return later in the year, potentially with a breakdown below key levels such as $60,000 before a true bottom is established.

Macro Pressures Still In Play

Cowen also linked Bitcoin's performance to the broader economic cycle, noting that late-stage environments often feature rising oil prices, tighter liquidity and risk-off sentiment.

In such conditions, capital tends to rotate away from high-risk assets like crypto and into sectors such as energy, commodities and industrials. As a result, Bitcoin may underperform traditional assets during this phase.

Despite the short-term bearish view, Cowen remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin. However, he believes the market still needs a prolonged "time-based capitulation" phase before the next major uptrend begins.

He also suggested that new all-time highs are unlikely in the near term and may only occur in the next cycle, potentially between 2027 and 2029.

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