Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is up 5% after breaking above the descending trendline that defined the entire bear trend from $128,000, setting up short-squeeze conditions.

The 46-Day Short Streak

The last time this squeeze happened was November to December 2022 during the FTX collapse.

“Traders are actively building short positions and betting against a breakout, creating conditions where a short squeeze becomes more likely if upward momentum persists,” said Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33.

If prices keep climbing, traders who bet against the rally face mounting losses that can force them to buy back positions all at once, sending prices sharply higher in a cascading short squeeze. The longer the standoff persists, the bigger the potential unwind.

The Wall Street Push

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) filed for a Bitcoin ETF this week, its first direct push into crypto investment. 

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) launched its own Bitcoin-tracking ETF last week—a move Lunde called “monumental” despite modest initial flows.

Meanwhile, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs absorbed more than $800 million in the past week, a sharp reversal from earlier outflows. Net inflows reached $332 million this week, adding $26 million on Thursday.

Moreover, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) posted two purchases totaling $2.6 billion in the past two weeks alone. Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) announced plans to launch spot crypto trading this year and suggested clients could allocate as much as 8.8% of a portfolio to Bitcoin.

The Trump War Comment

President Donald Trump said Thursday the war in Iran is going “swimmingly” and “should be ending pretty soon” at an event in Las Vegas. 

Trump said Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire and that a second round of face-to-face negotiations with Iranian officials could happen “probably, maybe, next weekend.”

The Trendline Break

BTC broke above the descending red trendline that held as resistance for six straight months. 

Price also cleared the 100 EMA at $75,283—the last meaningful EMA resistance before the 200 EMA at $82,988.

The MACD histogram has been printing green bars for two weeks. Today the MACD line crossed decisively above the signal line—the most bullish MACD crossover on the daily since the bull run peak.

Key support sits at $75,283 (100 EMA), then $72,033 (20 EMA). Resistance clusters at $80,000 (psychological), then $82,988 (200 EMA), then $85,000.

“A break above $76,000 could see BTC extend toward $85,000,” said Laurens Fraussen, research analyst at Kaiko.

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