Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.), the first Iranian American Democrat in Congress, filed six articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday over the Iran war.

A day later, she turned her attention to another Iran-war flashpoint: prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi.

Ansari posted on X that prediction markets are casinos where the rich and powerful are the house and everyone else is the chips. She said 99.96% of users lose everything while the top 0.04% walk away with billions.

The political risk lands on Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE), the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, which committed $2 billion to Polymarket in a two-stage deal completed in March. Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in its latest round.

Ansari was promoting the BETS OFF Act, which she cosponsored last month alongside Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) and Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.). The bill would ban wagers on war, terrorism, assassination and government actions.

Where The 99.96% Claim Comes From

The number traces back to on-chain analysis published in late December by blockchain analyst DeFi Oasis. It found that less than 0.04% of Polymarket addresses captured over 70% of realized profits, collectively $3.7 billion.

Ansari’s wording conflates two different figures.

The same analysis showed around 30% of Polymarket’s 1.7 million addresses posted realized profits, not 0.04%. The 0.04% figure refers to who captured the bulk of the winnings, not who won at all.

A 30% winner rate is well above traditional sports betting, where industry studies suggest only 3% to 5% of bettors are profitable over a full year. The methodology also counts pseudonymous wallet addresses rather than verified users, and one trader can run multiple wallets.

One Of Many Bills Unlikely To Pass

BETS OFF is one of several prediction market bills moving through Congress, including Rep. Mike Levin‘s (D-Calif.) Death Bets Act and Sen. Adam Schiff‘s (D-Calif.) sports contracts bill. TD Cowen analysts said last month that none are likely to pass this Congress.

Murphy himself called the odds slim to none, citing Donald Trump Jr.‘s role as a Polymarket investor and paid Kalshi adviser.

A ban would hit more than Polymarket and Kalshi. Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) and Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) both distribute Kalshi contracts, and ICE owns exclusive rights to Polymarket’s institutional data feed.

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