The two largest prediction markets both revealed plans to launch crypto perpetual futures in the U.S. on Tuesday.

The Information broke the news first this morning, reporting that Kalshi planned to roll out leveraged crypto products, citing people familiar with the matter.

A few hours later, Polymarket went public on X with its own teaser: “We price the future. Now you can lever it.”

The same-day one-two punch takes direct aim at Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and the $2.9 billion derivatives moat the crypto exchange has spent years building.

What Are Perpetual Futures

Perpetual futures are leveraged contracts that let traders bet on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and other tokens without an expiration date. They account for the bulk of volume on offshore exchanges like Binance and Hyperliquid, which have largely been walled off from American traders.

Coinbase has spent years trying to build an onshore equivalent. It closed the $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit in August 2025, rolled out “perpetual-style” futures with five-year expirations, and grew U.S. derivatives market share fourfold year-over-year. True perpetuals in the Binance format have remained off the table until now.

Kalshi will start with crypto perpetuals and may eventually offer perpetuals on other asset classes.

The CFTC Changed The Game

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said last month the agency plans to allow perpetuals in the U.S. soon, partly to pull volume back from offshore platforms. Kalshi holds CFTC licenses that position it to offer the product and secured a margin trading license last month. It hired crypto influencer John Wang as head of crypto last year.

Polymarket’s early-access signup page went live at polymarket.com/perps alongside the X post. The platform has been quietly building toward this, rolling out ultra-short Bitcoin contracts that already function like high-velocity derivatives, and registered with the CFTC in July 2025.

The COIN Trade

Coinbase shares were already down roughly 6% Tuesday after the New York Attorney General sued the exchange earlier in the day over its prediction markets product.

The stock sits roughly 55% below its July 2025 all-time high of $444, and Q1 earnings are due May 7.

Kalshi was reportedly finalizing a $1 billion raise at a $22 billion valuation led by Coatue Management. Polymarket is separately raising at roughly $15 billion.

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