The S&P 500 fell on Tuesday, dropping 0.63% to close at 7,064.01, as concerns grew that a U.S.-Iran peace deal would not be reached before the ceasefire deadline.
However, the Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is overwhelmingly bullish heading into Wednesday. The April 22 market shows about 89% of traders betting "Up," with early trading activity building on whether the S&P 500 will open higher or lower.
Why That Number Matters
Stocks declined during Tuesday's session as uncertainty rose around whether the ceasefire would hold. However, sentiment shifted after the close. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would extend the ceasefire, citing a “seriously fractured” Iranian government and requests from Pakistani officials to allow more time for negotiations.
The move reduced immediate fears of escalation, even as uncertainty persists over whether a lasting agreement can be reached. Oil prices had risen earlier in the session, reflecting those concerns about supply disruptions.
Investors are also navigating a busy earnings calendar, with companies including AT&T (NYSE:T) and Boeing (NYSE:BA) reporting before the bell, while Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to report after the close.
Futures are pointing higher following the ceasefire extension. S&P 500 futures rose 0.55% in early trading.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 7,122.64, above the prior close of 7,109.14, as residual optimism from earlier in the week supported premarket sentiment. The April 21 Polymarket bet resolved "Up," with traders correctly anticipating a higher open despite the index later closing lower.
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