Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ:HBAN) released first-quarter financial results and hosted an earnings call on Thursday. Read the complete transcript below.
Benzinga APIs provide real-time access to earnings call transcripts and financial data. Visit https://www.benzinga.com/apis/ to learn more.
View the webcast at https://event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/webcast.html?webcastid=EQly85uk
Summary
Huntington Bancshares reported strong first-quarter performance driven by disciplined execution, leading to significant profitability and returns.
The company highlighted its strategic initiatives, including expansion in the Carolinas, partnerships with Cadence and Veritex, and acquisitions of Janney and TM Capital, which are expected to drive long-term growth.
Future outlook remains positive with expectations of achieving a return on tangible common equity of 18-19% by 2027, supported by strong fee income growth and disciplined expense management.
Operational highlights include successful integration of partner acquisitions and strong fee revenue growth across payments, wealth management, and capital markets.
Management emphasized the company's strong liquidity and capital position, with a focus on maintaining flexibility and resilience in a dynamic global environment.
Full Transcript
OPERATOR
Greetings and welcome to The Huntington Bancshares first quarter 2026 earnings call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press Star 0 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Eric Wasserstrom, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Eric Wasserstrom (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you Operator and good morning everyone. Welcome to our first quarter call. Our presenters today are Steve Steinour, Chairman, President and CEO and Zach Wasserman,, Chief Financial Officer, Brant Standridge, President of Consumer and Regional Banking and Brendan Lawler, Chief Credit Officer will join us for the Q and A earnings documents which include our forward looking statements, disclaimer and non GAAP information and copies of the slides we will be reviewing are available on the Investor Relations section of our website which is ir.huntington.com. as a reminder, this call is being recorded and a replay will be available starting about one hour after the close of the call. With that, let me now turn it over to Steve.
Steve Steinour
Thanks Eric, Good morning and thank you for joining us. We delivered an outstanding first quarter by all measures, driven by disciplined execution across the franchise that is translating into strong profitability and returns. The essential question that we, our peers across the industry and our customers all face in this moment is about the outlook for the economy. So let me open with our perspective. We're operating in a dynamic global environment with geopolitical developments adding complexity to the outlook. We're watching these factors closely and currently we characterize conditions across our footprint as remaining consistent with prior quarters. We see broad based strength across commercial end markets, our clients are taking a thoughtful long term approach to decisions and we're not seeing any signs of a material shift in underlying demand. The consumer story is a bit more mixed with middle and upper income consumers continuing to spend in a manner supportive of the overall economy while lower income households continue to feel pressure from the cumulative impacts of inflation. Importantly, these factors do not change our outlook for performance. This year we delivered a strong first quarter, pipelines for the second quarter are healthy and customer activity continues to be steady. What differentiates Huntington in this environment is the flexibility and resilience of our operating model. We are a well diversified super regional bank supported by strong capital, liquidity and credit fundamentals and we are well positioned to perform in a range of scenarios. As we look ahead, we believe the firm is approaching an inflection point where strong core performance combined with the benefits of our new partnerships will drive higher returns and accelerate our earnings and tangible book value growth. There are five key messages I'd like to leave with you. First, we operate a differentiated super regional bank model with multiple growth engines and that model is working exceptionally well. We've continued to invest in strategic areas including our Carolinas expansion, the build out of our vertical specialty businesses, partnerships with Cadence Bank and Veritex Community Bank and the Janney Montgomery Scott and TM Capital acquisitions which will support durable earnings generation for years to come. Second, our core continues to perform very well. Organic growth remains the foundation of our strategy with strong performance across our businesses and geographies and standout results in value added fee services including record capital markets performance in the first quarter. Third, our balance sheet, grounded in our aggregate moderate to low risk appetite, provides us the confidence and flexibility to perform well in an uncertain future. We have very strong liquidity as well as good capital and reserves and remain vigilant in our outlook. Consistent with this, we made the decision to temporarily build additional liquidity, improving our already peer leading liquidity position. Fourth, our partner integrations are on track to deliver expected cost and revenue synergies from Veritex Community Bank and Cadence Bank and we remain excited about the extraordinary growth opportunities we continue to see in our core and across Texas and the South. We also successfully integrated the Janney Montgomery Scott and TM Capital acquisition which became accretive within three months and contributed to a record quarter for our capital markets businesses reflecting strong execution by the team and fifth, our earnings power generates significant capital, grows tangible book value and supports consistent shareholder returns. That strength enables us to reinvest in the franchise while returning excess capital and in a value creating way. We bought back shares in Q1, and continued buying quarter to date. Turning to slide 4 on an adjusted basis we generated 9% earnings per share growth, 36% PPNR growth and 9% tangible book value growth. Importantly, over the last five quarters we have consistently delivered ROTCEE at the target range we set at our 2025 investor day of 16 to 17% on a rolling 12 month basis. Building on that performance, we raised our rotce target to 18 to 19% driven by expected synergies from our partnerships. Growth in high return value added services as well as continuing capital return. We remain confident in our ability to deliver that level of profitability in 2027. Slide 5 highlights the strength of our balance sheet. Our liquidity capital and credit profile put us in a position of strength to deliver consistent performance across a wide range operating environments. Liquidity is a clear point of differentiation. We added cash to our balance sheet this quarter and available contingent liquidity now represents approximately 173% of uninsured deposits, 69% of our total deposits are insured and our unmodified Liquidity Coverage Ratio is 118%. All of these metrics are well above peer median capital remains Strong. Our adjusted CET1 ratio is well above regulatory minimums and within our 9 to 10% operating range. We expect Basel III endgame to be beneficial to our regulatory capital position. As you know, we manage credit with rigor and conservativism. Our reserve levels remain well above peers, while net charge offs continue to trend well below the peer median. Taken together, this balance sheet strength enables consistent performance throughout economic cycles and the ability to selectively capture organic growth opportunities. Turning to slide 6 we remain exceptionally focused on disciplined, rigorous execution of the integration of our partnerships, which is proceeding very well. Importantly, our core business continues to perform at a very high level. As we execute this integration, dedicated integration teams are operating with clarity and discipline across three priorities. First, welcoming new colleagues and customers into the franchise. This includes aligning regional leadership, expanding specialty banking and targeted fee capabilities, and successfully onboarding over 6,000 new colleagues and 1 1/2 million new customers. Second, executing the operational and systems integration is advancing on schedule. The Veritex conversion, was completed in the first quarter and we're on track for the cadence conversion in June. And third, and most exciting, we are delivering the expenses and revenue synergies we've committed to. Cost initiatives are tracking on schedule and we're already seeing revenue benefits as customers adopt more of the Huntington platform, particularly through deeper engagement across capital markets and payments, increased card usage and new consumer account openings. Because of this focus on realizing the synergies combined with the continued outstanding performance of our historical core, we are approaching an inflection point where execution will compound earnings, power and higher returns, engaging our flywheel that drives powerful long term value creation. And with that, I'll turn it to Zach to discuss the quarter's financial results in detail.
Zach Wasserman (Chief Financial Officer)
Thank you Steve and good morning everyone. Turning to slide 7, I'll cover our financial performance. We delivered another quarter of exceptional execution and profitability in Q1,, reflecting strong underlying performance across the franchise. For the quarter, earnings per common share was $0.25 on an adjusted basis excluding acquisition related expenses and other notable Items. EPS was 37 cents, up 9%. Year over year growth was driven by strong organic execution across the company and contributions from recent partnerships. That performance translated into higher net interest income and strong fee revenue generation. Fee revenues were a particular bright spot for the quarter exceeding our plan and reflecting strong customer activity trends across the businesses. We also managed our expenses with discipline, targeting baseline efficiencies and continuing investments that drive future revenue growth initiatives. Pre provision net revenue increased 36% on an adjusted basis. Cadence and Veritex were not included in the prior year quarter and their addition meaningfully increased average balances and revenue. Overall, the quarter demonstrated our ability to drive strong organic growth while simultaneously integrating our recent partnerships and executing against our cost and revenue synergy objectives. I'll review the drivers of this performance in detail on the next several pages. Turning to loan growth on Slide 8, we delivered solid organic momentum again in the quarter excluding the addition of cadence on an end of period basis, loan balances increased 1.5% or $2.2 billion, reflecting solid fundamental performance across the franchise. Organic growth was driven by continued strength in our core markets and commercial verticals. Within commercial, we saw meaningful contributions from our corporate specialty banking verticals including financial institutions, tech and telecom and industrials as well as growth from asset finance and middle market banking across both legacy and new geographies. Overall, our first quarter performance demonstrates consistent organic execution, highlighting the durability and breadth of our multiple growth engines and supporting continued earnings expansion. Turning to deposits on slide 9, we delivered solid deposit growth while maintaining disciplined pricing on an end of period basis excluding cadence core deposits increased $3.8 billion or 2.3% quarter over quarter driven by continued growth in primary banking relationships in both consumer and commercial. This reflects our sustained focus on relationship led deposit gathering. Cadence deposits contributed materially to growth this quarter and we intentionally optimized select acquired funding categories consistent with our plan and prior guidance. Overall, our deposit strategy continues to support revenue growth and provide robust core funding for organic loan growth. On to slide 10 turning to net interest income, we delivered strong dollar growth and continued margin expansion in the first quarter. Net interest income increased $301 million or 18.7% sequentially and was up 33% year over year. Net interest margin was 3.24%, up 9 basis points from the prior quarter. The increase in NIM was driven by lower funding costs, reduced hedge drag and purchase accounting partially offset by lower free fronts benefit and higher Fed cash balances. As Steve mentioned, during the quarter we elected to add approximately $4 billion of higher cash balances at the Fed to further strengthen our liquidity profile. This has a negligible impact on revenues. However, the denominator effect of holding higher cash will reduce the reported NIM calculation. I'll cover this in more detail in Our Guidance Outlook Moving to Fee income on slide 11 we had an absolutely outstanding quarter of fee income generation. This performance reflects continued underlying momentum across our core fee businesses with contributions from both organic activity and recent acquisitions. On an adjusted basis excluding all acquisition and divestiture activity this year and last, fee income grew 18% year over year payments. Revenue increased 21% year over year supported by continued client activity and product penetration on an organic basis excluding the impact of acquisitions. Overall payments grew approximately 10%, primarily driven by growth in commercial payments. Wealth management revenue grew 19% driven by ongoing household acquisition and positive assets under management, net inflows excluding M and A, and the impact of lower revenue from our corporate, institutional, custody and trust business. Underlying growth was approximately 10% reflecting strong and broad based client engagement. Capital Markets delivered its strongest revenue quarter on record and beat our initial plan with broad based contributions across loan syndications, advisory debt, Capital Markets, fixed income, sales and trading and rate hedging as well as the inclusion of recently acquired capabilities. This was a truly phenomenal quarter of performance for our Capital Markets teams with revenue excluding the impact of all acquisitions growing nearly 60% year over year. Loan and deposit fees also continued a trend of robust growth supported by a commercial lending activity. These FEES were up 28% year over year driven by strong loan commitment fees. Excluding acquisition related impacts. Loan and deposit fee growth was approximately 18%. Moving to expenses on slide 12 on a normalized basis excluding one time costs and the impact of absorbing Cadence's expense base as well as Janney and TM Capital operating expenses increased just $20 million sequentially. This reflects continued cost discipline and ongoing expense reengineering which are core elements of our value creation flywheel. These efficiencies are supporting sustained reinvestment in the business while also enabling delivery of strong positive operating leverage which was 220 basis points this quarter on a trailing four quarter basis excluding one time items. And to provide more detail on a very important area of investment for the moment we have a comprehensive enterprise wide AI program underway that is gaining momentum and already contributing to productivity and efficiency across the company. We're applying AI in five key areas. The first is in technology where we're rapidly improving the software delivery life cycle. The second is in agentic process transformation. We're driving efficiencies in major processes throughout the company. The third is in customer facing use cases where we're identifying opportunities to embed AI into key products and services going forward. The fourth is in colleague productivity and training where we're expanding significantly the tool set for our colleagues and increasing their readiness to deploy AI in their day to day work. Lastly is in our data and platforms to support future customer facing capabilities. This investment and activity is disciplined, focused on generating real operating outcomes and we see AI as an increasingly important enabler of expense efficiency in operating leverage over time turning to slide 13 our capital position remains strong, supporting organic growth, solid dividend yield and increased capital return through share repurchases. Over the past year, we've increased adjusted CET1 by 30 basis points and continue to manage adjusted capital to our 9 to 10% operating range. Our capital priorities remain unchanged, funding high return, loan growth, supporting our dividend and then all other uses including returning excess capital to shareholders. As noted at a conference in March, we increased our 2026 share repurchase plans to $550 million. This reflected our expectation of strong capital generation as well as lower than expected upfront dilution from the cadence marks. Year to date, repurchases have totaled more than $250 billion with $150 million in the first quarter and more than $100 million thus far in Q2. In total, that represents retiring approximately 15 million shares. Finally, including our strong capital generation and confidence in our outlook, the Board approved a new $3 billion share repurchase authorization replacing the prior program. Turning to Slide 14, we are creating shareholder value through disciplined execution as reflected in our ability to consistently generate returns at our targeted levels. Today, we are operating at a return on tangible common equity that is consistent with the 16 to 17% range we outlined at our 2025 Investor Day, demonstrating the strength of our underlying earnings power and the delivery of our commitments. As we complete the cadence integration and we realize targeted synergies, we are well positioned to further expand returns. This positions the business to increase return on tangible common equity by 200 basis points in 2027 to a range of 18 to 19%. This reinforces the power of our operating leverage, capital generation and disciplined management approach. Turning to Slide 15 credit performance remains stable and well controlled across the portfolio. Net charge offs were 26 basis points reflecting continued strong credit outcomes. Forward looking credit metrics also remained stable with the criticized asset ratio at 4.3%, well within our historical range. The non Performing asset ratio was 72 basis points consistent with our expectations post merger with the Cadence portfolio. Let's turn to slide 16 for our outlook for 2026. As we look ahead, our plan is broadly tracking within our range of expectations and the underlying fundamentals of the franchise remain solid. Organic growth is strong cost and revenue synergies are tracking as expected and the cadence integration remains firmly on plan. Importantly, we continue to have strong line of sight to two important milestones. The first key milestone is our Q4 performance that will fully include the run rate benefits of the cost synergies from both Veritex Community Bank and Cadence Bank and where we expect to deliver a Q4 efficiency ratio in the mid to low 54% level, a clarification and improvement from the prior guidance of less than 55%. This is indicative of the significant expense efficiencies we are driving. This reflects our ongoing re engineering of baseline operating expenses as well as the benefits of the cost synergies. As we've noted, Veritec's cost synergies will fully be reflected in the run rate in the second quarter, with cadence reaching full run rate in the fourth quarter. The Q4 efficiency ratio will also benefit from incremental targeted cost management actions we're now taking. I'll expand on those more in a moment. The second key milestone is our 2027 earnings per share projection of $1.90 to $1.93 with a return on tangible common equity of between 18 and 19%. We're fully on track to deliver these results as we update our outlook for this year. The macro environment is certainly more uncertain now. As Steve noted, we're not yet seeing material impacts in our business. However, it is clear our customers across all segments are also watching the environment cautiously. Hence, at the margin, economic growth this year will likely be lower than originally forecasted. Starting with net interest income, we now expect to be at the low end of our guided range. This reflects two primary dynamics. First, on loan growth, we're fine tuning our plan to reflect the current environment and actively manage portfolio mix, and we now expect growth to track closer to the midpoint of our range versus the high end of the range earlier in the year. Second, on funding, we continue to drive strong deposit growth, Q1, was yet again another quarter of approximately 2% sequential growth and our outlook throughout the remainder of 2026 is for continued strong organic growth. We are consistently acquiring new primary bank customers at peer leading rates and gathering core funding as we deepen those relationships. Supported by highly analytical and segmented pricing management capabilities, the environment continues to be competitive while also rational and predictable. We expect to hold and improve on deposit costs. However, the improvement we're seeing is modestly less than our prior assumption. This reinforces our focus on optimizing loan growth rather than pursuing volume at the expense of marginal returns. Additionally, as mentioned earlier, we have elected to carry approximately $4 billion of incremental Fed cash which has no material impact on actual net interest income dollars but does reduce reported NIM. Putting these factors together, we now expect 2026 NIM to trend into the high 320s compared to our prior expectation in the mid-330s. 5 basis points of this change is related to the higher Fed cash balances which reduce the NIM metric with de minimis impact on revenue. Approximately 2 to 3 basis points of the impact is from the combination of asset optimization and deposit costs. As we work through the integration and optimization of the Cadence portfolio, we would also expect some quarter to quarter variability in reported nim, though the full year trajectory remains consistent with this outlook and as before, we continue to forecast a rising NIM in the back half of this year and further increases into 2027. While these dynamics move our Net Interest Income (NII) outlook to the low end of our range, we're largely offsetting the impact to earnings through two factors. First, we're generating outstanding fee income growth. We have made extensive investments in payments, wealth management and Capital Markets, and our teams are executing exceptionally well. Based on our current pipeline of activity, we're raising our expectations for fee revenue growth by 4 percentage points to 31 to 33%. And second, we are calibrating expense growth with the revenue environment. As we've consistently said, if revenue conditions were to soften, we will modulate expenses accordingly. Against this backdrop, we're accelerating targeted efficiency initiatives and rephasing select investments. As a result, we're tightening our 2026 expense growth range to the lower half of the 32.5 to 33.5% range. Importantly, this is inclusive of higher variable costs from the projected higher fee revenues. All of this will likely result in full year operating leverage that is modestly lower than our initial guidance and we now expect it to be in the range of 400 to 450 basis points for this year. Importantly, as I indicated earlier, we expect to exit 2026 with a fourth quarter efficiency ratio in the mid to low 54% level. One last item to call out our share count for 2Q will be approximately 2,055,000,000 shares, including the first full quarter impact from the Cadence Partnership. We continue to anticipate share repurchases totaling at least $550 million this year, including the approximately $250 million we've completed year to date. Concluding on Slide 17, our operating model continues to perform, generating strong revenue earnings and tangible book value growth. This supports the investments we're making in our capabilities which will enable Our long term competitive vibrancy and substantial value creation we create for shareholders. With that, we'll conclude our prepared remarks and move to Q and A.
OPERATOR
Thank you, Zach. We will now take questions. We ask that as a courtesy to your peers. Each person ask one question and one related follow up question. If you have additional questions, please return to the queue. Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please, while we pull up the questions. Thank you. Our first question is from John Armstrong with RBC Capital Markets.
John Armstrong (Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets)
Hey, good morning, guys. Hey, good morning. Just a couple of guidance clarification questions. Zach, can you talk a little bit more about the Balance Sheet Optimization Project? Just kind of, you know, why you're pursuing it, the overall goal, the timeline, and then how you measure success with the strategy of what you're pursuing? Yep, great, great question, John. Thank you. And as I noted in the prepared remarks, what we're doing is a few things really, primarily to calibrate against what we see as the economic environment, which continues to be supportive generally of the plan, but at the margin is a little softer in terms of economic growth outlook. And so it's more realistic for us to forecast loan growth in the midpoint of the range. And as we do that, as you noted, we're looking to further optimize the balance sheet. I would characterize that the strength we're seeing in loan growth is quite broad based. One area though, that we continue to see the opportunity to tune lower is commercial real estate, in particular construction within commercial real estate. So that's a long term strategic expectation of seeing that reduce as percent of the overall loan base. And certainly that's an area that we will optimize further in light of this environment. The other dynamic is clearly we will want to continue to match fund the loan growth with core deposit growth. And my expectation is we will continue to see deposits growing at or above the growth of loans on sequential basis from here. But clearly, you know, there's an opportunity to calibrate that level and to really make sure we're being very judicious about managing the NIM ultimately as well. So those are really the primary drivers. And you know, they noted that will bring Net Interest Income to the low end of our growth range, offset however by stronger fees, lower expenses and a profit neutral outcome for this year. Okay, fair enough. And then there's so many questions to ask here, but I just, I wanted to ask about the authorization. The 3 billion buyback authorization, you know, why that size? What's the plan for utilizing that? It's just a big gap between 3 billion and the recently updated $550 million plan. Thanks. Yeah, great question, John. This is Zach. I'll take that one as well. A couple things I'd say. Firstly, I think what we're seeing now emerge in the industry as a best practice is to have an evergreen authorization that's extant for a period of time. So part of this is just ensuring that we can have good functioning program over a multiple year time period. With that being said, I would also highlight that our guidance we've given is for approximately $550 million of share repurchases this year and next year, 1.1 to 1.2 billion. So already you're north of the billion dollars that we'd had before in terms of an authorization. The last thing I'll say, and we may touch on this with further questions. So I'll be brief, but clearly Basel III represents an opportunity and you know, we'll work through what that is over the course of time. But our expectation is that that would represent additional share repurchase opportunity in 2027. Okay, thank you very much.
OPERATOR
Our next question is from Erika Najarian with ubs.
Erika Najarian (Equity Analyst at UBS)
Yes, thank you for taking my questions. I guess this is a two parter. Zach, maybe if you could just further unpack the incremental cost actions. Heard you loud and clear that you're. You would always modulate the expense outlook to reflect the revenue environment. But I'm wondering if sort of what the cost savings that you identified incrementally are. And to that end, Steve, we're hearing from some of your smaller peers that they have been able to hire away Cadence Bank producers and talked about a culture clash and obviously those are your rivals. So I wanted to hear from you yourself in terms of the retention.
Zach Wasserman (Chief Financial Officer)
Great questions, Erica. I'll take the first one and then we'll pass it over to Brent, take the second one. So in terms of cost efficiencies, look, a couple things I'd say one is, and I noted it you highlighted in your question, but we really are genuinely very committed to this management of positive operating leverage, delivery of the efficiency ratio improvements that we've talked about for the fourth quarter and into 2027 and continuing this, this approach of very rigorous, disciplined re engineering of our baseline costs. You know, we've taken out one more than 1% of the cost base each year for six years in a row. This will be the seventh consecutive year of doing that, but also reinvesting significantly into the business. And so, you know, I would characterize what we're, what we're doing now is very much tuning the, you know, we're bringing the growth of expenses down to the low end of the range and that's inclusive by the way of incremental expenses, that will come from higher fee revenues. The baseline kind of tuning action that we did for expenses was about $50 million. And you know, generally what we, what we look at when we do those kind of things is twofold. One, can we accelerate our efficiency programs? And, and frankly we are, what we're seeing is very encouraging momentum, particularly in Agentic Process Transformation. And so we're leaning into that and we'll see incremental benefit here. The second thing is looking at our overall investment program and seeing where there are valuable but slightly longer payback, maybe less critical investments that we can rephase. And so that's really the approach, again, pretty marginal in the grand scheme of our overall expense growth this year, but important for us to demonstrate that discipline. And that's the actions we're taking. We don't believe it has any substantive impact on our growth this year or expectations for next year. You know, I'll stop there and turn over to Brant to address the other question.
Brant Standridge
Erica, this is Brant. Thank you for the question on talent. First of all, we operate today in a number of markets that are very competitive from a talent perspective. And when you think about a partnership like with cadence, turnover is something that we expect and plan at some level and in some cases it's initiated by us. I would share that. Overall retention remains very, very strong. We have been successful at retaining leadership and that's translated to the teams, our leaders on the ground. And our leadership has been very focused, from the beginning on communicating and delivering an outstanding colleague value proposition. And it's focused on very fast decisions on talent and org early on support as we go through the process and providing those bankers with even more capability to serve their customers. I would also note that we've been successful in hiring new talent to support these teams. And you may have saw this week we made some pretty significant announcements in both Austin and Dallas that support that effort. We feel very good about where we are with talent and our opportunities going
Steve Steinour
Forward and come in. This is Steve. I'll come in over the top, top Erica and maybe pick a little bit up on, on John's question. We're, we're in a position now where we can, we've got clear line of sight to full expense synergies. Revenue synergies are off to a very good start. These are calibration moves is at least the way we think about it and, and very, very confident in our ability to get to our 2027 run rate. So we're throwing off a lot of capital at these return levels and they'll support the buyback complemented with, with the new capital regs. In, in the context of the, the cost actions, we've always said as we see the situation requiring some level adjustment, we'll adjust. We're. While our customers are generally in the same position they were 90 days ago in terms of confidence and activities this year, loan growth has been good. There is increasing concern about the impact of inflation and the consequence of what's going on in the Middle East. So we're just trying to be a little more cautious, get ahead of it, stay ahead of it. And we think these are prudent actions in a variety of ways. In terms of our colleagues, we have great colleagues that have joined us from Veritex Community Bank and Cadence Bank and some of the businesses that a couple of these groups have been doing are not really in line with our credit philosophy. And so there's an adjustment and so we're not going to compromise on our credit views. And so that creates a little bit of a friction for some colleagues. It's going to result in us being positioned where we want to be over time with, with the portfolios as a whole. These are marginal areas in terms of the adjustments overall. And we're, we have a tremendous amount of hiring. We announced some of it this week. There's a fair amount more already in the pipeline. So more to come. We're going to be net investing. We are even more pleased and confident of the springboard that we characterize Texas as. And the management team and I have been in Dallas and Houston for the last couple of weeks. We really, we really are excited about what we're seeing there. So quite optimistic about our future. Thank you both.
Erika Najarian (Equity Analyst at UBS)
Thank you. And if I could just ask my second question. And given the stock reaction to begin, I just have to compound this. So first, Zach, could you give us more detail on what the potential Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA) deflation is going to be under the revised standardized approach for Basel III endgame? And you know, Just to compound this, I guess I'm scratching my head a little bit. The stock is underperforming the BKX and you essentially told us your earnings outlook is the same. You're still growthy, but you're continuing to balance growth and profitability. You gave us upside on buyback. You connected the Basel III opportunity to the buyback. So, again, I'm sorry to compound this question. What do you all think the market is not fully understanding about your story?
Zach Wasserman (Chief Financial Officer)
Thanks, Eric. And I'll note with humor that I think that was the third question, but I'll take it anyway. It's a great question. In terms of Basel III, obviously the teams, you know, continue to kind of dive in and really analyze this, but from what we can see at this point, it's, it's fairly constructive. And obviously we're pleased that the proposal is out and the industry can kind of work through it and get to finality with, with the Federal Reserve here. The Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA) Delta that we see at this point under standardized approach is about 7.7%, to be precise, sort of in the range of 7.5 to 8% reduction in RWA. That should represent approximately 80 basis points of reported Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) benefit. You know, the drivers of that are all the typical categories that you're likely seeing from many others. The mortgage book, the retail loans, commercial, industrial, et cetera. And so, you know, quite, quite positive. You know, clearly more needs to take place here before this is finalized, before we have certainty of the implementation date, but very constructive. You know, one thing I will highlight, and we've talked about this a lot, that we already have moved to an internal capital management framework that is inclusive of aoci. And so whereas there will be a phase in an Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (AOCI) on a reported basis, that really won't affect the way we kind of think about capital, our capital management plan. So this really is quite a net benefit for us. And presuming that the economy is in a sound position and the outlook continues to be good, you know, our expectation is it would represent a pretty meaningful opportunity to increase capital distributions, you know, both in the terms of, in form of share repurchases and dividends. And, you know, sort of underlying the point I made to the question earlier, you know, look in terms of how the, how the market is valuing the company, a couple things I would say. One is, you know, we of course are very, very frustrated that the fundamental, exceptionally good performance of the company is not being represented in the valuation of the company. With that being said, we also can only focus on what we can control and you know, for us, the delivery of what we talked about at our last conference. Over the next, between 2025 and 2027, 30% earnings per share growth, an increase in 200 of 200 basis points of return on capital to a peer leading level, a 53% efficiency which will represent meaningful improvement and you know, repositioning, you know, continuing to position the franchise for very significant long term growth. We think as those results are delivered and importantly by the fourth quarter, when you really see the run rate of that, you know that that will be so manifestly obvious that the valuation of the company can only recover from there.
Erika Najarian (Equity Analyst at UBS)
Thank you.
Zach Wasserman (Chief Financial Officer)
Thanks Erica. Great questions.
OPERATOR
Our next question is from Manon Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. Hi, good morning, Zach. On the NII Guide, how much of this is coming from lower spreads on loans and higher deposit costs given that you're competing in basically highly competitive growth markets?
Manon Gosalia (Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley)
Yep, thanks for the question, Manon. You know, I'd say the revenue outlook is really a function of both the lower loan growth coming through, as we discussed, and that'll be kind of nor at the middle of the range as opposed to we were, you know, tracking to the high end frankly before and also modestly lower net interest margin probably. You know, what I've discussed is margin trending into the high 320s relative to the mid-330s we were discussing before. That's, you know, call it 7 to 8 basis points lower, of which 5 basis points is just the kind of calculus based on higher holding, higher cash balances, two to three bips being sort of a lower core nim from a slightly higher deposit cost trajectory. Still expect to see deposit costs go down, to be clear, just not as rapidly and, and slightly lower asset yields as we as we optimize. So that's really the kind of the core part of that. And, and the outcome is a function of both of those things. Maybe tap onto that in terms of what we're seeing in deposits.
Brant Standridge
Yeah, Manon, you mentioned deposit competition. Obviously it's competitive, but we view it as rational and we're used to competing. The Midwest is one of the most competitive regions from a deposit perspective and Huntington has been successful for a number of years. And in fact this quarter our focus has been for many years and continues to be on driving primary customer household growth,. And we've been able to successfully do that at a rate of 3 to 5% a year for many years. This puts us at the very top of the industry. That top quartile customer growth translates to very strong and leading deposit growth. And with the growth initiatives and efforts in the new partnerships, we have a number of new levers that create opportunity for us. Our new markets and branch expansion in the Carolinas is turning to be quite successful. In fact, our first seven branches now with less than a year have $215 million in new deposits. We've just turned on digital in the south and have done so already in Texas and in fact just in the Veritex Community Bank footprint. In the first two months, deposit production is up 30% year over year. We ran our first deposit growth campaign in the new cadence footprint and we're seeing year over year increase in production of 160%. And in their commercial bank we have a number of two new deposit verticals that are contributing significant growth and one very scaled deposit vertical that continues to grow. So it is competitive, we're watching it very, very closely. But we have a number of levers that allow us to continue to expand our deposit base with the foundation of growing new customers.
Manon Gosalia (Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley)
Got it. That's great. And then as my follow up, it's good to see that you're recalibrating the expenses based on the macro environment. I was wondering if you could unpack a little bit what flexibility you have on the expense side as you think about that. $90 to $1.93 EPS for 2027. If some of these macro headwinds continue, what opportunity you have to continue to recalibrate the expenses.
Zach Wasserman (Chief Financial Officer)
Yep. Thanks Manon, this is Zach. I'll take it. You know, as we come into every year we develop a pretty rigorous and clear expense contingency management plan so that if revenues outperform, we know where we'll manage and accelerate investments or if, if revenues are slightly lower where we will modulate them. And that was, you know, we effectively just deployed that plan just now. And certainly there are further increments of that plan that are possible. We have a very strong ability to pull the levers of the business from an expense perspective to, to manage through, you know, the question we will always ask ourselves, of course, is what's the best posture to ensure the long term, you know, value creation plan the long term growth of the company. With that being said, our default would be to, to offset and to, to manage positive operating leverage. You know, and the ways we would do that are, are very much indicative of what I said. You know, there are generally ways that you can continue to allocate more resources to efficiency programs maybe that we had previously done and shift resources to that and that would be the first area that we go. The second is really just dialing back kind of overall expenses, just hunting for opportunities in every area. And then the last is around investments. And to the extent that the revenue diminution that one would see hypothetically is economic driven, then clearly that's very prudent to pull back the pace of investments spending in that. And so those are kind of the typical modus operandi. And, and the answer we have, we have quite a bit of flexibility to be able to do that at this point. To be clear, we're not seeing that environment come through. And our expectations for this year are, you know, within percentage points of where they had been before. And the outlook for next year is likewise very much consistent to what we had planned before.
Steve Steinour
You know, we've done an extraordinary amount of investing the last three years in the company and yet manage the core expenses quite dynamically. What we're talking about is just tuning the rate of investment at this stage. But we have multiple levels planned levels of reduction. Should at some point there's going to be a downturn, should that downturn occur. We don't think it's this year, not in the foreseeable future, but we have a Recession Readiness Playbook and that includes what we're going to do on the expense side when it occurs.
Manon Gosalia (Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley)
Great. Thank you all.
Zach Wasserman (Chief Financial Officer)
Thank you all.
OPERATOR
Our next question is from John Pankari with Evercore.
John Pankari
Good morning. On the net interest income from and your updated guide on the loan side, I know you noted the optimization impact. Can you give us a little bit of color on loan pricing and spreads? Has that impacted your outlook at all? And then on the cash at the Fed in that component of the updated margin expectation, what drove that change in the need of cash at the Fed
Zach Wasserman (Chief Financial Officer)
would not have already been something that would have been baked into your expectation. Thanks. Thanks John. I'll address that. So in terms of, of loan optimization and spreads, as I noted, I think a little earlier, not seeing any significant spread movements. I think, you know, in for really high quality commercial borrowers in competitive markets, we're seeing some modest spread compression. I'd characterize it on the range of between 5 and 15 basis points but really not overly significant. And as we, you know, really look at forward pipelines, there isn't an expectation of further changes from here. And so you know, clearly, you know, I think we and the whole industry is really driving for loan growth, carefully calibrating deposit growth to match that, being very judicious about, about marginal spreads. The environment looks quite rational. I would also call it predictable, which is enabling us to, to really kind of calibrate here effectively, we believe. And so that's what we're seeing on the ground in terms of the cash look, you know, I think so. So no, that that level of cash had not been included in our prior plan and we increased cash levels and therefore it's a modest change, again, a neutral revenue change. So not anything that economically really is impactful at all. And look, I, I think I would encourage you to consider that as just another example of Huntington with very discipline, ensuring that we're always in a position of strength. Liquidity, we know is, is a really critical risk pillar. It's the one that could move the fastest. We genuinely have no concern whatsoever about, about our own liquidity or our customers confidence in us. With that being said, the environment could change quickly and we want to be ensure that we're always in that incredibly strong position of strength. You know, I'd lastly just highlight, you know, that unmodified Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) of 118% is one of the highest in the industry, let alone for large banks. And so this is just more of that strength.
Steve Steinour
And John, the Middle East issues are what drove us to that decision.
John Pankari
Got it. All right, thanks, Steve. And then secondly, on the capital front, I appreciate the priorities that you mentioned in your commentary earlier and I appreciate the buyback color, I guess, Steve, if you could just maybe update us on your thoughts around potential incremental ma interest. Obviously you are very busy integrating the two deals, but can you update us on how you're thinking about potential incremental opportunities that may come around just given the regulatory backdrop? And if you do have interest, how can we think about the size of a potential deal on the whole bank side? If there was something you would pursue.
Steve Steinour
John was waiting for that question. Thank you for it. You know, our stance hasn't changed. We're consistent on this issue. The primary focus for us is driving organic growth. We are really, really pleased with what we're seeing develop. But it's early in Texas, in the south, and so we are spending a lot of time in those markets. The underlying franchise, the historic core franchise, performing exceptionally well. So, so there was a question of whether we could do two, two of these partnerships and integrate them and drive the core. We're answering that question. I think very, very strongly. We're going to continue to focus on the core. There's not a, you know, there's not a reason to change our focus. We've always said if we can't drive the core. We will not pursue inorganic opportunities. And that hasn't changed in terms of scale. You know, I don't see us doing anything, anything big. You look at a company that's going to be somewhere around $300 billion and, and you know, it's 5%, 10%, maybe someday perhaps, but, but that nothing imminent. And you know, we can grow at the, we can grow at the low, we grow at that 5% level just driving the core. And that's the focus. We're gonna, we're gonna get to those 2027 returns and, and deliver the goods and, and that's our priority.
John Pankari
Great. Thank you, Steve.
Steve Steinour
Thank you.
OPERATOR
Our next question is from Ken Austin with Autonomous Research. Hey Ken. Hey.
Ben Raisbek (Equity Analyst at Jefferies)
Good morning guys. This is Ben Raisbek on, in place of Ken. I wanted to ask, on Fee Income, can you just walk through the raised expectations for the Fee Income guide and what drove some of that better performance in payments, wealth and capital markets? And then like what types of growth rates should we expect out of these businesses on a go forward basis once the acquisitions are fully integrated? And then did you include any revenue synergies in the fee income outlook?
Zach Wasserman (Chief Financial Officer)
Thanks Ben. I counted three questions in there, but I'll, but I'll address them all. They're all on the topic of fees, so they're fair game. Look, just as I said in some of the prepared remarks, really, really strong fee performance in the quarter. And effectively what you're seeing is us pull that through and just continue to forecast the really exceptional performance we're seeing right now, which we have a lot of confidence in. Every one of our businesses is exceeding the plan. So payments doing exceptionally well. Wealth continues to grow just really, really sustainably with customer acquisition, with asset gathering and of course capital markets. We just, I really personally want to congratulate our capital markets team on an absolutely phenomenal quarter, both organically 60% year on year growth, but also the welcoming of TM Capital in January. And we're thrilled to have our new colleagues contributing meaningfully as well. And I would say the broad preponderance of other fees continues to perform pretty well also. And loan, loan and deposit fees, which are clearly calibrated to the activity we've got going on in our, in our commercial lending primarily are really growing, growing well also. So what you saw us do in terms of an increase in, in the guidance is really a function of those things. Continuing, I will say we are very encouraged by the early progress on revenue synergies and you know, we've discussed in a Mid quarter conference this year that we'd expect somewhere between 50 and $75 million of revenue synergies in our plan for this year, although that was largely already in our guidance. So I wouldn't characterize the increase as really being driven by that. But certainly we are. We are expecting to see that and already starting to see meaningful progress in cap markets and payments and I think wealth coming alongside that over time also. So really good, you know, as you think about the long term and I direct you back to a couple things. One, in our investor day in 2025 we talked about high single digit fee growth growing faster than the balance sheet, generally growing as a percentage of of the revenue base of the company and that the three major power alleys for fee growth growing in the double digits. That continues to be our general long term assumption. However, I will say that over the next couple years I'd expect even faster growth than that and that's really driven by the revenue synergies which are weighted heavily toward fee revenues.
Brant Standridge
I might Ben, this is Brant. Just to add to Zach's comments, first of all, from a revenue stand a synergy perspective, the three areas, cat markets, payments and wealth is the place. We're seeing a lot of significant early wins. In some cases it's because there's new product capability that we offer in either payments or cap markets that were not offered for Cadence Bank and Veritex Community Bank customers in the past and that creates an opportunity. And in some cases the scale of those is much greater. For example, in the wealth business, we now have across the south and across Texas access to a much larger group of advisors that can serve even more of the customers. In the wealth business specifically, we've just in the last month announced a major platform upgrade. In fact, we are upgrading both of our wealth platforms that really make us best in class. We have seen over the course of the last year one AUM growth that's north of 13% now the market has helped, but net flows have actually doubled year over year. So we're seeing very strong growth in the wealth business. Early results from a payments perspective, especially as it relates to Cadence Bank and Veritex Community Bank have been very, very strong. And Zach mentioned earlier the record quarter from the capital markets perspective. So we feel great about the long term trajectory of those three businesses. They're places that we're investing and they're absolutely at the center of our revenue synergy, opportunity and springboard that we have with the Veritex and Cadence partnership.
Ben Raisbek (Equity Analyst at Jefferies)
See Ben, you've taken advantage of Erica's precedence So thank you for the questions. Thanks for taking my question, guys.
OPERATOR
Our next question is from David Chiverini with Jefferies.
David Chiverini (Equity Analyst at Jefferies)
Hi, good morning.
Brian Viallino (Equity Analyst at Jefferies)
Thanks. This is Brian Viallino on for Dave, Just to follow up on the revenue synergy discussion from the prior question, I think you talked about reinvesting a portion of those synergies back into the business. Is that still the plan? And I guess could you talk about which areas you're looking to grow with those synergy dollars,
Brant Standridge
Brian? I'll take that question. Yes, we do have reinvestment. That's one of the advantages of these partnerships is our ability to be able to do that. I would mention a couple of areas. One is in the form of bankers and teams. And we made an announcement this week where we've expanded our middle market presence in Austin and also adding to regional banking and middle market banking in Texas. We will be adding more capabilities across the footprint with more teams. So that's one example of how we're reinvesting back. Another example is digital. We've been able to launch digital now in Texas beginning of this year, Kate. That's the southern footprint we've been able to launch just this month. And this will give us the ability to substantially upgrade, reimagine, re engineer the digital capabilities that we offer customers today. We have leading capabilities. We intend to make them even better. So those would be two very large examples of things that we will do to invest back in the business. We're going to continue to invest in our payments business and ensure that we have world class products and capabilities to serve the growing commercial and regional bank that we have within the company. And then lastly, I just mentioned earlier the major platform upgrades that we're doing in the wealth business to continue to support its growth. Those would be some of the examples of things that we're doing to invest back in the business.
OPERATOR
Our next question is from Chris McGaughty with KBW Morning. This is Sean Klahane on For Cris. Really appreciate the color that you guys
Sean Klahane (Equity Analyst at KBW)
have given so far this morning, but just a quick one on credit and underwriting and reserve expectations from here. Saw you reiterated the 25 to 35 NCO guide, kept your reserve comfortably above peers. But is there any industries you guys are watching or anything in terms of how we should think about the rest of the year?
Brendan Lawler (Chief Credit Officer)
Thanks Sean, for the question. This is Brendan. I'll take that. You know, you noted the strong credit quarter that we've had and the top quartile peer reserve that we have as well. And I think that positions us for the future as we, as we look out over the horizon. One of the areas that we've talked about being a little bit more measured in is commercial real estate and particularly on the construction side. And that's an area that over time we will reduce our exposure to. But it'll be, you know, it'll be in an organic fashion over the next two plus years. So it's a place for watching. We're always vigilant on the entire portfolio, but we feel good about our positioning and this quarter is just another example of that.
Sean Klahane (Equity Analyst at KBW)
Great, great question, Chris. Thanks.
Steve Steinour
Thank you very much. And let me conclude with three key thoughts. First, we continue to have tremendous organic growth momentum across our franchise. This is evident in our strong core loan and deposit growth and in the outstanding contributions from our strategic value added fee services, payments, wealth management and capital markets which are all contributing meaningfully to the results. And second, our integration activities are fully on track. Veritex is fully integrated and the Cadence systems migration in June marks the final major milestone in that process. So we're focused on delivering the cost synergies from these partnerships which we expect to accelerate in the third quarter, be fully, fully run rated into our earnings power in the fourth quarter. Executing against these commitments is a key priority for us ahead of other strategic actions. And third, we are firmly on track to deliver our key financial targets. We continue to see a clear path to our 2027 EPS target of 190 to 193 driven by organic revenue growth, disciplined expense management and realization of the cost and revenue synergies from these partnerships. Fourth quarter of this year will provide a clear view of the earnings power of our go forward franchise. We've got strong momentum, a clear plan and a team that knows how to execute. And we are performing at a very high level. So finally, let me say thank you to the more than 25,000 colleagues for everything you do to serve our customers and strengthen the franchise every day. Thank you all for your interest in Huntington. Have a great day.
Disclaimer: This transcript is provided for informational purposes only. While we strive for accuracy, there may be errors or omissions in this automated transcription. For official company statements and financial information, please refer to the company's SEC filings and official press releases. Corporate participants' and analysts' statements reflect their views as of the date of this call and are subject to change without notice.
Login to comment