Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is entering a structurally different phase of market development, according to Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen at Bitwise Asset Management.

Weak Q1, Strong Narrative Shift

In a Apr.22 interview with Milk Road, Hougan and Rasmussen described Q1 as the weakest crypto quarter in several years across price action and on-chain metrics. However, they emphasized a sharp divergence between weak data and strong fundamentals.

They noted that while market performance lagged, major developments, including ETF expansion, regulatory clarity, and institutional participation, remained strongly positive.

This disconnect, they argue, could set up a delayed rebound in Q2 as markets begin pricing in forward-looking expectations.

Bitcoin As “Two Bets In One“

Bitwise framed Bitcoin's long-term thesis as a "two bets in one" structure:

  • Digital gold narrative: Bitcoin's role as a store of value remains the core investment case. The firm reiterated that this alone could support very high long-term valuations, including scenarios above $1 million per BTC.
  • Geopolitical and currency hedge: Bitcoin is also increasingly viewed as a neutral settlement asset in a fragmented global financial system. Bitwise pointed to rising geopolitical tensions and discussions around alternative payment rails as factors increasing Bitcoin's relevance in cross-border settlement scenarios.

On broader crypto markets, Bitwise analysts expect a new cycle of innovation driven by regulatory clarity and technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence and blockchain infrastructure.

Together, these could trigger a new wave of token-based startups – an "alt season 2026" driven not by hype, but by real utility and compliant token incentives (a reimagined ICO-like era).

Image: Shutterstock