Commodity Prices Could Jump 16% In 2026 Amid Iran War, Says World Bank: DBC, DBB, GLTR Gain Spotlight

A widening conflict in the Middle East is set to trigger the global commodity surge, with broad implications for inflation, growth and financial markets, according to the World Bank Group.

The bank, in its Commodity Markets Outlook report, projects overall commodity prices to climb 16% in 2026, driven by a sharp spike in energy and fertilizer costs.

The projection will likely drive gains in the DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSE:DBC), which offers exposure to futures contracts of the most heavily traded and important physical commodities in the world. Crude oil futures make up for 34.5% share in the basket, followed by 11.4% share in gold.

DBC has $1.8 billion in assets under management (AUM) and has an expense ratio of 0.85%. It trades in an average daily volume of 2 million shares.

Biggest Energy Price Spike In Four Years

Energy prices are projected to jump 24% this year, marking the steepest increase since the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The bank said strikes on energy assets and shipping problems around the Strait of Hormuz have produced what it called the largest oil supply shock on record, with an initial hit of about 10 million barrels per day. The Strait accounts for roughly 35% of global seaborne crude shipments, the release said.

Even after backing off recent highs, Brent was still more than 50% higher in mid-April than at the start of the year, the bank said. In its baseline, Brent is expected to average $86 per barrel in 2026, compared with $69 per barrel in 2025. Currently, Brent oil is trading above $110 per barrel.

"The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive," said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. 

Food Price Set To Explode

Fertilizer prices projected to increase 31% in 2026 as urea prices jump 60%. The World Bank said affordability for fertilizer is set to worsen to its weakest point since 2022, which could squeeze farm income and weigh on future harvests. The release also flagged a downside risk scenario in which a longer conflict could intensify food stress. Under that outcome, up to 45 million additional people could fall into acute food insecurity this year, based on World Food Programme estimates cited by the bank.

Industrial Metals Set For New Records

Beyond energy and farm inputs, the World Bank said several industrial metals are expected to set new records, including aluminum, copper, and tin, citing demand tied to data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy.

This projection could boost Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE:DBB), having an AUM of $352.3 million and average daily volume of 430,000 shares. It offers exposure to futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely used base metals like aluminum, copper and nickel. DBB has an expense ratio of 0.74%.

Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings indicate that DBB has a Momentum score in the 72nd percentile. It maintains a strong price trend in the short, medium and long term.

The bank also forecast precious metals prices to rise 42% on average in 2026 as investors seek perceived safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold prices are hovering near $4,600 per ounce level while silver is trading near $73 per ounce. Silver is witnessing a surge in demand, especially in China, with imports reaching a record high of approximately 836 tonnes in March, up 78% from February and 173% above the 10-year seasonal average for March.

The precious metal surge would likely drive gains in abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF (NYSE:GLTR), which measures the performance of the prices of physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium, in the proportion held by the Trust. With an AUM of $3 billion, the fund trades in an average daily volume of about 62,000 shares and charges 0.60% in annual fees.

Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings indicate that GLTR has a Momentum score in the 78th percentile but maintains a weak price trend.

Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings indicate that DBC has a Momentum score in the 84th percentile with a strong pricing trend in short, medium and long term.

The following table shows price performances of ETFs in percentage change over the one-month and year-to-date:

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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