Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) is down to $73 Wednesday after Q1 crypto revenue plunged 47% to $134 million, yet Bernstein maintains its $130 target for the stock.

The Q1 Miss: Crypto Revenue Collapsed

Robinhood on Tuesday reported cryptocurrency revenues of $134 million and native-app notional trading volumes of $24 billion, year-over-year declines of 47% and 48% respectively. 

Crypto now accounts for just 13% of total revenue versus 17% in Q4 2025.

Q1 revenue hit $1.067 billion, a 7% miss versus estimates. Adjusted EBITDA of $534 million missed expectations by 9%. 

The company posted net income of $346 million, a 3% increase year-over-year, maintaining profitability despite the crypto collapse.

What Worked: Prediction Markets, Gold Subscribers

Prediction markets emerged as the primary growth driver with event contracts trading a record 8.8 billion units in Q1. 

This segment contributed $415 million in annualized revenue, representing 17% of total transaction-based revenue.

Meanwhile, Robinhood Gold subscribers grew 36% year-over-year to 4.34 million, representing a 16% adoption rate among 27.4 million funded accounts. 

The margin book reached a record $17 billion, a 93% increase from the prior year.

Options revenue of $260 million rose 8% while equities revenue of $82 million jumped 46%. 

Overall transaction revenues posted $623 million for the quarter, up 7% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 320% increase in event contracts revenue.

Bernstein: Already Bottomed, Buy The Dip

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said the weak Q1 numbers were already factored into the share price. 

The firm noted that while crypto revenue fell, the segment stabilized in April.

Chhugani pointed to the upcoming mid-2026 launch of Rothera, a joint venture exchange with Susquehanna expected to move Robinhood away from third-party venues like Kalshi.

This allows the company to control pricing and product selection for event contracts.

Bernstein also highlighted Robinhood’s appointment as the sole initial trustee for Trump Accounts in collaboration with BNY. 

Approximately 5.5 million children have signed up for the program out of an eligible pool of 60 million. Robinhood expects to invest $100 million into the vertical.

The stock closed at $82.07 Tuesday but had been struggling below the 100 EMA at $89.12 and 200 EMA at $91.55.

Support sits at $76.43 (Supertrend), then $72 to $73, then $63 (March lows). Resistance clusters at $80.89 (20 EMA), then $89.12 (100 EMA).

Unless $73 holds and reverses fast, HOOD is heading back to test its yearly lows.

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