Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) reports fiscal Q3 earnings after the bell today.

The company has routinely beaten earnings estimates, which explains the 90% chance Polymarket gives it of beating the $4.05 GAAP EPS consensus.

The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which specific words Satya Nadella and his team will say on the 5:30 p.m. ET call.

What Kalshi Predicts

“Teams” is at 98%. “Dynamics” 97%. “Gaming” 97%. “LinkedIn” 97%.

Four near-locks, recurring revenue lines that get called out every quarter.

"OpenAI" is at 95%. Microsoft and OpenAI renegotiated their partnership Monday, with Microsoft's IP license becoming nonexclusive through 2032 and OpenAI gaining the ability to serve products on other clouds.

For investors, the question is whether Nadella frames the reset as flexibility, risk, or continued Azure strength.

“Fairwater” at at 90%. Fairwater is Microsoft’s giga-scale AI datacenter program, connected by dedicated fiber into what Nadella calls his “first AI superfactory.”

A mention from Nadella is the cleanest answer to investors asking what the capex is actually buying.

“Anthropic” is at 89%. Sitting six points behind OpenAI, this is the first Microsoft print with two foundation model partners. November’s Ignite deal added $30 billion of Anthropic Azure compute on top of OpenAI’s existing commitment, and a mention from Nadella could confirm Azure as the multi-model home, not just OpenAI’s.

“Nvidia” is at 88%. Microsoft is one of the largest Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) Blackwell customers in the world, with the Atlanta and Wisconsin Fairwater sites running on GB200 NVL72 systems. The market wants Nadella’s read on supply and pricing into 2027.

“Windows 11” is at 87%. Microsoft ended Windows 10 support on October 14, forcing enterprise refresh cycles that show up in commercial OEM revenue.

Below The Coin Flip

“Phi” is at 50%. Phi is Microsoft’s family of small, open-weight language models, designed for on-device and low-cost inference, not as a ChatGPT replacement. A mention could signal Nadella has larger ambitions for this side of the business.

“Cybersecurity” is at 37%. Microsoft Security is one of the company’s fastest-growing standalone businesses, but it rarely gets called out on the earnings call.

Reading The Board

Traders expect Nadella to sell the AI superfactory story, frame OpenAI and Anthropic as a hedged dual-partner book, and walk through the standard Office-Cloud-LinkedIn revenue lines.

MSFT is trading around $422, down roughly 12% year-to-date and well off its October highs. With the OpenAI partnership freshly renegotiated, the Street wants a clean print to reset the narrative.

The call is at 5:30 p.m. ET.

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