Yardeni, RBC, And HSBC Raise S&P 500 Targets: Who's The Most Bullish On The Street Now?

The bull case for U.S. stocks just found a new ceiling, and it was set by the strategist who has been carrying the torch for the “Roaring 2020s” since 2020.

In 72 hours, three of Wall Street’s most-followed strategy desks lifted their S&P 500 year-end targets. Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni went highest, to 8,250 — the most bullish call on the Street.

On Sunday, Ed Yardeni raised his year-end S&P 500 target to 8,250 from 7,700, moving above every published call on Wall Street and roughly 11.5% above Friday’s record close of 7,398.93.

The move arrived after a six-week winning streak that pushed the benchmark – tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) – to its longest stretch of gains since 2024, fueled by what Yardeni described in his note as an “earnings-led meltup.”

“We’ve never seen consensus earnings expectations rise so quickly for the current and coming years as they have in recent months. The result has been an earnings-led meltup in the stock market,” Yardeni said.

Yardeni Tops The Street At 8,250

Yardeni’s new 8,250 target sits roughly 11.5% above Friday’s record close of 7,398.93. It now edges past Oppenheimer’s 8,100 and Deutsche Bank’s 8,000 to become the most aggressive call published on Wall Street.

The veteran strategist also raised his subjective probability of a continued “Roaring 2020s” scenario to 80% from 60%, folding in his previous 20% meltup case. Odds of a recession-driven bear market stayed at 20%.

Yardeni’s longer-horizon view sharpened too. He stuck with a 10,000 target for the S&P 500 by the end of 2029.

“It might arrive ahead of schedule,” he added.

RBC’s Calvasina Splits The Market In Two

RBC Capital Markets raised its 12-month forward target to 7,900 from 7,750 on Friday, a call set by Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy. The new number implies 6.8% upside from Friday’s close, with a bull case at 8,100 — a 9.5% gain — if AI earnings broaden beyond the Magnificent Seven.

“AI in the fast lane, Middle East in the slow lane,” Calvasina said.

The framing is the call. RBC cut earnings expectations for the non-AI portion of the S&P 500 by 7.5%, while leaving AI-related estimates closer to Street consensus. The asymmetry is what carries the index higher in her model.

HSBC Goes Smaller, Sees Risks Ahead

HSBC raised its year-end 2026 target to 7,650 from 7,500 on Monday, the smallest of the three hikes.

The bank expects 2026 S&P 500 earnings per share growth of about 20%, or $325 for the index, with the Magnificent Seven continuing to drive the bulk of gains. First-quarter S&P 500 earnings are on track to climb nearly 29% year-on-year, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data cited by HSBC.

What makes the call interesting is the upside path. HSBC strategists laid out a credible route above 8,000 — but flagged the rally’s narrowness as the structural risk. Most S&P 500 stocks still trade below their 52-week highs, leaving room for further upside if participation broadens.

Tech and the Magnificent Seven now account for more than half of the S&P 500’s market cap and more than 40% of index earnings, though valuations have de-rated from prior peaks.

Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.