Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) tapped $82,000 on Monday, yet Michael Terpin says the rally may be setting up another short opportunity before the next major leg higher.

Why Terpin Is Bearish Short Term

Speaking at Consensus Miami, Terpin, founder and CEO of Transform Ventures and often called crypto's "Godfather," said his fund is currently shorting BTC while targeting another move lower before a long-term recovery.

Terpin said he still believes Bitcoin eventually reaches $1 million by 2033 but argued the current cycle has not fully completed its capitulation phase.

"We think we're pretty confident about 2-to-1 odds that we are going lower," Terpin said, adding that anything sold in the $80,000 range could potentially be bought back in the $60,000 to $50,000 area later.

He projected Bitcoin could revisit somewhere between $48,000 and $57,000, though he no longer expects a collapse below $40,000 due to strong institutional buying pressure from spot ETFs and Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR)-linked products like STRC.

According to Terpin, aggressive Bitcoin accumulation from Michael Saylor's ecosystem may now be creating a structural floor beneath the market.

Is BTC's 4-Year Cycle Still Intact?

Terpin argued Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle remains mostly intact despite changing market structure.

He pointed to indicators including:

  • Coin Days Destroyed models projecting a possible bottom near $42,000
  • Historical capitulation timelines pointing toward an October low
  • Previous cycles taking roughly one year to fully bottom after major tops

Terpin said the market may be seeing diminishing downside volatility this cycle, with institutional adoption cushioning deeper selloffs.

While dismissing fears that AI could threaten Bitcoin itself, Terpin warned advanced AI systems could eventually exploit vulnerabilities in Ethereum smart contracts.

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