Cryptocurrency veteran Samson Mow projected on Wednesday that Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) Chair Michael Saylor will overtake Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk as the world’s richest individual if Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) hits roughly $4.2 million apiece.

Mow’s Calculation

Mow pointed to Saylor’s personal stash of 17,732 BTC, based on his last public disclosure, and a 9.9% ownership of Strategy’s shares, as reflected in SEC filings.

As of this writing, Strategy holds 818,869 BTC in its reserves. Mow put Saylor's indirect exposure at 9.9% of the total holdings, translating to 81,068 BTC. Including Saylor's personal stash, his total effective exposure equaled 98,800 BTC.

Mow’s math showed a 1:1 valuation requires roughly $8.6 million per BTC to push Saylor's wealth past Musk's current wealth, estimated by Forbes at $826 billion. Saylor’s wealth was estimated at $5.4 billion.

However, he noted that if MSTR traded at a premium to its BTC holdings, it would amplify Saylor’s exposure and lower the required price threshold, which he estimated at $4.2 million per BTC.

Saylor’s Personal BTCSaylor’s Indirect Exposure To Strategy’s BTC ReservesTotal Effective BTC ExposureTotal Value When BTC Hits $8.6 Million
17,732 BTC81,068 BTC98,800 BTC$849.68 Billion

Counter Arguments From Analysts

Clearly, Mow made a lot of assumptions here.

Cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo pointed out the calculation omits compounding Musk’s future net worth growth from ambitious projects, including the Dyson Swarm.

Read Also: Elon Musk Shares Investing Advice He's Asked 'A Lot' — Buy Stocks From Companies 'You Believe In' And Only Sell If Quality Tanks, Not If Market Panics

SpaceX’s Gains, Tesla’s BTC Stash Ignored

Others cited Musk's anticipated gains from SpaceX's long-awaited market debut and Tesla's own Bitcoin holdings. Tesla owns 11,509 BTC, according to several on-chain analytics firms.

Mow admitted to the omissions, but said his hypothesis also doesn’t factor in Strategy purchasing more Bitcoin.

Price Action: Strategy shares fell 0.36% in after-hours trading after closing 5.02% higher at $186.97 during Thursday’s regular trading session.

Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings for Strategy indicate long-term weakness, while short- and medium-term trends remain positive.

Read Also: Elon Musk Fires Back As Calls To Tax Billionaires Grow Louder, Says Paid More Taxes Than 'Anyone In History'

Photo by Frederic Legrand – COMEO via Shutterstock