Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may still be locked inside its historical four-year cycle despite ETF adoption, institutional buying and strategic reserve narratives, according to a prominent analyst.

Do Not Overcomplicate The Cycle

In his May 25 podcast, analyst Benjamin Cowen argued that Bitcoin's latest peak followed the same timing structure seen in prior cycles, with BTC topping in Q4 of the post-halving year before entering a prolonged correction phase.

The market is overcomplicating the cycle narrative when price behavior still closely resembles prior bear market structures from 2014, 2018 and 2022.          

Bitcoin historically bottoms near the end of the midterm year which is the Q4 of every 4-years and the previous cycle tops have also closely aligned in time.

Cowen noted the current cycle topped within roughly one week of prior cycle timing models, despite widespread calls for a "supercycle" fueled by spot ETFs and corporate treasury accumulation.

‘Apathy' Top Doesn't Cancel Bear Markets

One of the biggest arguments against the four-year cycle is that Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoric retail mania.

Cowen pushed back on that narrative by comparing Bitcoin to historical S&P 500 cycles from the 1960s and 1970s, where markets posted muted new highs before entering multi-year bear markets anyway.

According to the analysis, weak upside extensions do not invalidate cyclical downturns.

Cowen said Bitcoin repeatedly reclaimed the 200-day moving average during prior bear markets before ultimately rolling over again.

Cowen said Bitcoin's structure still suggests potential summer weakness, another sell-off later in 2026, and a possible cycle low in October or Q4 2026.

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