Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) saw French car registrations surge 655% in May to 5,446 vehicles, the latest sign of European recovery for an EV maker that lost nearly half its market share there last year.

The headline number comes with a heavy asterisk.

May 2025 was a particularly weak month for Tesla in France, when registrations fell roughly 67% year-over-year amid Model Y factory retooling and consumer boycotts, leaving an artificially low base for this year’s comparison.

Even with that caveat, the rebound stretched well beyond France.

Registrations climbed 71% to 858 vehicles in Sweden, 136% to 1,750 in Denmark, 113% to 1,690 in Spain, and 29% to 3,345 in Norway, according to data released Monday by national auto bodies.

ING senior economist Rico Luman said the recovery reflects accelerating EV adoption in Scandinavia and a catch-up effect in lagging markets like Spain.

Tesla’s overall market share continues to erode, he noted, but the broader EV market is growing fast enough to lift sales anyway.

Britain and Germany, the region’s two largest car markets, report May figures later this week.

Prediction Markets Lean Bullish On Q2 Deliveries

Polymarket traders are positioning for a stronger Q2 than Wall Street. The Q2 deliveries market shows the 425,000 to 450,000 band leading at 34%, followed by 450,000 to 475,000 at 17% and 400,000 to 425,000 at 16%.

Over on Kalshi, bettors give Tesla a 58% probability of clearing 430,000 deliveries in Q2.

Wall Street has been cutting forecasts.

Morningstar projects Tesla deliveries will fall roughly 5% in 2026 to 1.56 million, citing the U.S. EV tax credit expiration last September and rising competition in Europe. Tesla missed company-compiled consensus by roughly 7,600 units in Q1.

Why It Matters For TSLA

Tesla shares closed near $434 on Friday, up roughly 39% over the past year despite European market share losses tied to Chinese competition, a thin product pipeline, and Musk’s political profile.

The May registration data gives bulls a fresh data point ahead of the Q2 print in early July, with retail traders and prediction market bettors pricing in a beat that institutional analysts are not.

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