The S&P 500 snapped a nine-session winning streak on Wednesday as rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured equities. Polymarket traders are overwhelmingly betting on another weak start for the benchmark index.
The S&P 500 fell 0.74% to 7,553.68 on Wednesday, retreating from record highs reached earlier this week. The June 4 Polymarket contract implied just a 14% probability that the index will open higher on Thursday.
Why That Number Matters
Wednesday’s selloff came as investors reacted to escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.
Oil prices climbed after Iran struck Kuwait International Airport and the U.S. carried out additional “self-defense strikes” on Qeshm Island. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.41%, while Brent crude gained 1.89%.
Higher oil prices pushed Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% and the 30-year yield nearing 5%, fueling concerns that inflation could remain elevated and limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates.
Investors will also watch Thursday’s initial jobless claims data, along with first-quarter productivity and unit labor cost readings.
The Bull Countercase
Despite Wednesday’s decline, it’s worth noting that the S&P 500 had entered the session after nine consecutive winning sessions and remains close to record highs.
President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Iran had agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons, although he cautioned that Tehran could still reverse course.
Market bulls also point to continued strength in corporate earnings and artificial intelligence-related investment trends as longer-term supports for equities.
Still, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) shares fell 13% in extended trading on Wednesday after reporting a fiscal second-quarter revenue miss, while CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) dropped 10% after issuing weaker-than-expected revenue guidance.
S&P 500 futures were down 0.43% early Thursday.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 7,605.31, below Tuesday’s close of 7,609.78, meaning the June 3 Polymarket bet resolved “Down.” The contract recorded approximately $66,215 in traded volume before settling.
Image via Shutterstock
Login to comment