Standard Chartered Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoffrey Kendrick on Thursday said the Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) bottom is “almost in”, calling $63,000 the buying zone as the token trades down 22% over the past month.

ETF Holdings Held Firm, Proving More Resilient Than February Fear

Kendrick’s call is a direct reversal of his February 12 note, where he warned of “pain and final capitulation” and cut his near-term Bitcoin target to $50,000. 

The key variable that changed his view is spot ETF holdings.

In February, he flagged ETF capitulation as a real downside risk. Instead, holdings went from 682,000 Bitcoin to a peak and settled back to roughly 674,000, broadly flat over the period.

“This tells me that ETF holdings are more structurally strong than I had feared in February,” Kendrick wrote in a client note Thursday. 

He maintained his $100,000 year-end Bitcoin target and $4,000 Ethereum target throughout the drawdown.

Strategy’s 32 BTC Sale Caused The Pain—A Buyback Could Reverse It

Kendrick described Strategy Inc.’s (NASDAQ:MSTR) sale of 32 Bitcoin last week as unfortunate timing that “fit the DAT naysayer thesis perfectly.” 

However, he pointed to historical precedent. When Strategy last sold Bitcoin in December 2022, selling 704 BTC for tax optimization, it bought back 810 BTC just two days later.

Kendrick expects this response to be far more aggressive, forecasting either a 10x repurchase of roughly 320 BTC or a 100x repurchase of around 3,200 BTC. 

A confirmation of that buying would be a tentative signal the low has printed.

“There are a lot of ifs in the above, so accumulation is a better strategy than trying to outright declare the low has been printed,” Kendrick cautioned.

Bitcoin Sitting On Last Technical Support Before Structure Fails

Bitcoin is down another 6% on the day and more than 40% over the past year. Every EMA sits far overhead as resistance, with the nearest being the 20 EMA at $72,679. 

RSI at 17.08 signals extreme oversold conditions that can set up sharp bounces, though oversold alone does not confirm a reversal.

The February structural lows at $62,000 represent the last real support on the chart. A daily close below that level erases the entire 2026 recovery structure and opens a move toward $60,000 then $58,000. 

Holding $62,000 with a strong wick rejection and reclaiming $65,000 targets $68,000 to $72,000.

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