Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has published its first European safety data for Full Self-Driving, handing the autonomy story fresh momentum even as the stock slid into Friday’s SpaceX listing.

Drivers using FSD Supervised on public roads in the Netherlands recorded 3.5 times fewer collisions than manual drivers over the past two months, according to figures Tesla shared this week.

On highways the gap was starker, with zero collisions reported across 16.6 million kilometers driven on FSD.

The data covers the period since Dutch authority RDW granted FSD Supervised national approval on April 10, the first such clearance in Europe. All of it comes from Tesla’s own telemetry, with no third-party audit.

What Prediction Markets Say About The Robotaxi Bet

The Dutch system still needs a human behind the wheel, a different product from the driverless robotaxi that anchors Tesla’s $1.5 trillion valuation.

Traders are not convinced the unsupervised version is close. A Polymarket contract on whether Tesla launches driverless robotaxis in California by June 30 sits near 4%, on more than $108,000 in volume.

That skepticism tracks a thin fleet, one Benzinga noted is now smaller than PepsiCo’s driverless Doritos truck fleet.

Kalshi traders give Musk’s Optimus robot just an 18% chance of a commercial release this year.

How The SpaceX IPO Could Pressure The Stock

SpaceX is set to list Friday under the ticker SPCX at $135 a share, with Anthropic and OpenAI further back in the pipeline on confidential filings.

Scott Galloway says the SpaceX listing and the IPOs behind it could pressure Tesla, as investors sell stocks they already own to free up cash for the new offerings.

The Consolidation Wildcard

Merger speculation surged this week, with Kalshi pricing a 48% chance Musk combines Tesla and SpaceX before May 2027.

Morningstar sees Tesla holders as the likely winners, estimating they could take up to 66% of a combined entity, and notes SpaceX already buys Tesla Megapacks and Cybertrucks. A single conglomerate would let resources move more freely, with Tesla’s robotaxi platform potentially tapping Grok and Starlink.

Not all analysts are as bullish, with estimates of the share impact ranging from a 28% dilution haircut to a $450 billion repricing, depending on the terms.

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