Elon Musk’s SpaceX is set to price the largest IPO ever, and crypto traders are already betting the stock pops 22% the moment it lists as SPCX on the Nasdaq.

Polymarket traders are not as convinced. They give that same jump roughly even odds, opening a gap between two of the loudest crowds wagering on Musk’s rocket company.

What The Perps Are Pricing

Perpetual futures tied to SpaceX traded around 165 on crypto venues Hyperliquid and Binance Thursday morning, according to Bloomberg, implying a valuation near 2.2 trillion. SpaceX is offering shares at a fixed $135, or about 1.8 trillion, which puts the perps at a 22% premium to the deal.

These contracts do not turn into stock at the opening bel. They instead rebase into standard real-world asset perpetuals that track the live Nasdaq price, settling in cash rather than shares.

A similar perp appeared to predict the blockbuster debut of Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ:CBRS), which soared 68% on its first day in May.

Where Polymarket Disagrees

Polymarket’s market on SpaceX’s closing market cap tells a more cautious story. Traders price an 84% chance the stock finishes its first day above the 1.8 trillion IPO valuation, so some pop is the heavy favorite.

The odds of closing above 2.2 trillion, the level the perps imply, sit at 42%, while clearing a more modest 2 trillion, about an 11% pop, gets 64%.

One read on the gap is that perps buyers are paying up for the speculative upside in SpaceX’s orbital AI data center ambitions, while Polymarket traders may be anchoring closer to Starlink’s existing revenue.

The Tradeable Angle

Retail cannot buy the perps or the contracts directly, but the listing still flows through public names. Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) is where much of the retail crowd will likely chase SPCX on day one.

Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) is the primary US on-ramp for USDC, the stablecoin that funds and settles these perp contracts on venues like Hyperliquid.

The deal is also reportedly more than four times oversubscribed, which may explain why both betting venues lean bullish even as veteran skeptics question the price.

Image: Shutterstock