The S&P 500 closed higher on Friday, advancing by 0.50% to 7,431.46, capping off a volatile week on an optimistic note following the Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) debut. Heading into Monday, the bulls are fully in charge following a massive geopolitical breakthrough over the weekend.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is overwhelmingly betting on a higher open. The prediction market reflects a 93% chance of an “Up” open.
Why That Number Matters
On Sunday, President Donald Trump announced that the peace agreement with Iran is “now complete.” Trump authorized the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, declaring, “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” The market response was immediate and explosive:
- Oil Prices Crash: At the last check, WTI crude oil tumbled 4.96% to $80.67 per barrel, and Brent crude declined 4.50% to $83.40.
- Futures Surge: U.S. stock futures leaped, with S&P 500 futures gaining 1.20%, while Nasdaq 100 futures surged 1.87%. Meanwhile, Dow Jones futures were up 0.94%.
- Asian Markets Rally: Equities in Asia also advanced on the news, with South Korea's KOSPI surging 5.51% and Japan's Nikkei 225 jumping 4.87%.
The Bull Case
The formal signing of the memorandum of understanding is expected in Switzerland on Friday. The permanent cessation of military operations removes the largest macroeconomic overhang of the year, paving the way for the equity rally to resume without the drag of an energy shock.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Friday, June 12, at 7,410.85, well above Thursday’s close of 7,394.30. As a result, the June 12 Polymarket bet resolved “Up” at the open. The contract settled with a traded volume of $157,708.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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